Investors should therefore play the card of caution before the EU summit tomorrow, which should deliver a plan to increase the firepower of the European bailout fund (EFSF), to recapitalize banks and to erase a portion of Greek debt. To do this, and it is then a first-, the EU will apply directly to other states and their sovereign wealth funds to strengthen his strike force in case of economic shocks.Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the Norwegian fund (397.5 billion euros), has already applied for, according to Reuters.

But time as concern mounts including the Italian debt. Despite new savings measures announced by Rome, with rumors of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund are becoming more pressing. This prompted Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister, to get angry Monday: "Nobody has anything to fear from the third European economy and the extraordinary founding of the European Union" which is the Italy.Then added: "We honor our debt regularly, we have a primary surplus [excluding debt interest] more virtuous than we and our partners will achieve a balanced budget in 2013."

Investors want to be reassured

In this context, the markets should wait for signals about the political strategy to prevent contagion of the Greek crisis. This is already on a war footing since the beginning of the week, like Baroin. Yesterday, the Minister of Economy has estimated "convinced" that European leaders would reach a "global agreement". According to him, the last meeting of the euro area in Brussels this weekend in Brussels has led to progress "two thirds" of the negotiations.

In fact, expectations are high, including abroad.For its part, the euro fell slightly against the U.S. dollar, losing 0.14% to 1.391 dollars.

On the agenda in France, Gfk index of consumer sentiment (November) will be unveiled this morning. As housing starts and consumer confidence (October).

In the U.S., the Case Shiller real estate index (August) will be published early in the afternoon. The Consumer Confidence Index (October) is expected in 16 hours.

Values ​​to follow:

• STMicroelectronics announced Monday a decline in sales in the third quarter in a context of deteriorating semiconductor market and general economic uncertainty.

• Seb has achieved organic growth in sales of 7.2% in the third quarter, primarily driven by its performance in emerging markets.

• JCDecaux has entered into an agreement with Presstalis, partnership marketing and distribution of the press, to acquire 95% of Mediakiosk. Presstalis retain 5% stake in the company managing over 746 outdoor advertising kiosks in France, whose sales totaled 26 million euros in 2010.

• Peugeot aims to sell 500,000 copies of its future 208, we read in The Tribune on Tuesday. Produced in Poissy and Slovakia, the car should also be made in Brazil and China. Its price will be very aggressive attack, the newspaper said.

• Groupama announced that its CEO Jean Azema had been revoked and the new management team should improve operating profitability and solvency.

"The outstanding, which had indeed declined after the peak record in mid-2009, increased 12% worldwide in the first half of 2011," says chief economist Yves Zlotowski. Peripheral countries in the euro area are the most vulnerable, with an increase of 28% in Greece, Italy 29% and 71% in Portugal. "In this country, it is less sovereign risk worries that the business impact of the recession, austerity measures, the credit crunch and lack of growth opportunities," said the Chief Economist.

Another weak link, Italy (rated A4) which is found as Portugal (A4) on negative watch.The economy suffers from structural weaknesses of businesses, which will be aggravated by the economic slowdown. Degraded by one notch, Greece (note C) brings in its wake Cyprus (note B), due to the high exposure of its banks and a very high private debt no faxing pay day loans.

Other countries in the euro area – Germany, Austria, Belgium, France and the Netherlands – retain their A2 rating but lose the positive watch, as the United States.

Crisis of confidence

Overall, the two sides of the Atlantic are suffering the same problems.In downturn, linked to debt reduction of economic agents, combined with the crisis of confidence reflected in market volatility, the distrust of banks holding back access to credit, and political obstacles, among the psychodrama of the debt was U.S. and European delay in resolving the case of Greece and strengthen the euro area.

"We need a credible institutional scenario on European and safeguards," notes Yves Zlotowski, is said, however, confident. "There have been major advances in Greece, the role of the ECB, the EFSF …."

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"Deficit reduction is entirely due to the transport sector," stressed the customs in a statement. Remains that over the last twelve months, the gap between imports and exports widened to 66.8 billion euros, against 51.5 billion for 2010.

Exports reached on August 37.42 billion euros, up 2.9% at three months. Airbus sales have been strong high for the month of the year, thanks to the delivery of three Airbus A380 super jumbo no fax cash advance.In addition, France has delivered two satellites, one in China (112 million) and the other in the United States (130 million). The performance of aerospace and aeronautics, powered shots of large contracts, are very volatile from one month to another.

The rest of the industry has pretty well taken for export, Customs noted "particularly strong for industrial machinery and electrical equipment, industrial exports are fixed for the chemicals."

Imports in turn was driven by the manufacturing industry (chemicals, rubber, plastics, industrial machinery, etc.).. "Imports are also rising, particularly since the European Union (Ireland, Germany, UK and Netherlands), 'the Customs.

However, the deficit-which aggregates the deficits of the State, Social Security and local-rest him, identical to the forecast, ie 5.7% of GDP in 2011. "And this government deficit, which accounts for the rating agencies" insists one at Bercy. No hocus-pocus. This stability is primarily due to good news side Safely. Thanks to the good performance of the employment and wages in 2011, social contributions are expected to exceed more than one billion in the forecast.In addition, "costs of parastatals grew more slowly than expected," said Valerie Pécresse's entourage, the budget minister.

Do everything to prevent France to lose its "AAA" rating! Since the U.S. has been damaged on Friday by the rating agency Standard & Poor's, the pressure has increased dramatically over the last states still rated AAA in the world. Keep this precious document is now the major objective of the French government, for reasons both political and economic. A downgrade of France in fact lead to mechanically increase the cost of debt refinancing. But with 47 billion a year in interest payments, the debt burden is the second largest budget item in order of importance. At such high levels, any runaway deficit could swing into a downward spiral.

For now, however, there is no indication that France is threatened.On the contrary: since the beginning of the new crisis, two weeks ago, the rate at which the Treasury borrows on the markets – and ten years – fell by 3.44% to 3.07%, which is one point among the lows. In practice this means that investors continue to buy the French debt they still consider very safe. Moreover, Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch have confirmed all three since the beginning of the week's AAA rating and France recalled that the note was accompanied by a "stable" outlook, that is, that they do not intend to revise the medium term. This does not prevent the wildest rumors running now in the trading rooms. Bercy had to lie to "formally" on Wednesday that France would be degraded."We want the managers of U.S. pension funds who question the quality of the French debt," says a French banker. To silence these questions that may to be growing, the executive is forced to accelerate its program of fiscal adjustment.

The unknown growth in 2012

Thursday morning, INSEE publish the number of French growth in the second quarter of 2011. Officially, the institute provides an increase of 0.4% of GDP. But economists expect a lower figure. Some do not hesitate to bet, even on a stagnation in activity between March and June After the strong rebound in GDP in the first quarter (+0.9%) consumption and industrial production have turned red, for technical reasons (end of scrapping, rising oil prices …) but also because global economy is now declining payday loans in one hour.The surprise meeting at the Elysee on Wednesday was probably meant to anticipate bad news ahead. "We have always said that the second quarter would be worse than the first and the activity will then return later this year," cautions there be in the entourage of Baroin.

A priori, the government should maintain its forecast of 2% growth this year, he still has a great chance to meet with the dynamics of the first month. However, doubt increases over the year 2012. Initially planned 2.5% growth for 2012 was revised down in May to 2.25%. This forecast now appears optimistic. Even before the storm in financial markets, experts Treasury recommended to display a more conservative figure of 2%."We want to be politically and economically credible our expectations: whether to revise downwards the growth we'll see," says one in the entourage of Valérie Pécresse.

More rigorous perspective

Baroin and Valerie Pécresse continue to hammer home: the objective of "intangible" is to keep the deficit reduction goals that provide for a deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2011 and 4.6% in 2012. And that, "regardless of the level of growth," says one at Bercy. In other words, if the government is lowering its forecast for GDP in the coming days, they must be accompanied by such additional savings. For now, it is expected that the 2012 budget to be submitted end of September, involves three billion euros in savings on tax loopholes. It will probably do much more.Gilles Carrez (UMP), General Rapporteur of the budget in the Assembly, recommends at least 5 billion economy. If the amount is not yet determined the method, it begins to ripen. "It's likely that we proceed as in 2011," it says in the entourage of Baroin. This implies a general planing existing niches – "for everyone involved" – and a removal of devices deemed the most unjust. Companies are in the crosshairs this time, especially large compared to SMEs. Determine precisely the niches will be deleted at stake in the meeting of August 24.

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Baroin for its part related to the Europe Agreement on Greece on Thursday and compromise between Republicans and Democrats: "All that has been implemented for two weeks three weeks, the agreement of the euro area on the issue Greek, the Washington agreement on the question of raising the ceiling of U.S. debt in the right direction. "These agreements" are going in the direction of the reinforcement of global growth, "he said, and they will" reaching consequences for global economy is recovering. "

Berlin has also welcomed the plan, but without emphasis. "The German Government is satisfied that there is a political agreement in the United States on this difficult issue," said at a press conference a spokesman for the government, but "we do not comment on its contents."

Earlier in the night, Japan applauded the U.S. agreement."We welcome the agreement on the U.S. debt and hopefully it will stabilize markets," said Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yukio Edano. The islands observed at the forefront of American debt crisis. It is the second largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, after China.

BlackRock prudent

It is not clear, however, that the announcement of Washington, as expected, calms markets. The largest asset manager worldwide, BlackRock, welcomed the plan cautiously. "The proposed framework for reducing federal spending is a positive step," said the fund in a statement. But "the exact composition and timing of all the spending cuts will determine whether the proposal produces a real and significant reduction of the deficit," he added.

Markets "need to perceive a clear path to deficit reduction to encourage confidence in the U.S. dollar," says BlackRock. "This is essential if we are to retain the AAA rating of the United States and encourage long term investment."

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Investors adopted a cautious approach since the beginning of the week. The inability of a handful of members of the United States to reach an agreement before Aug. 2 on raising the debt ceiling up the country into a situation more and more difficult.Specifically, the U.S. Treasury think after August 2, if the parliamentarians have not voted to increase the legal limit to the debt of the federal state, it will not be able to honor all its commitments.

As about 40% of its expenditures are financed by borrowing, the U.S. federal government will have to make drastic choices between payments made and those that push it off. This will mean the paralysis of some jurisdictions, uncertainty about the payment of social benefits, or payment terms to suppliers.

The new director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde has called on Washington to "find a real solution." She also asked the Europeans to apply "quickly" the plan against the debt crisis.

Companies seem to want to continue to invest

On the foreign exchange market, the dollar is still abused.The euro, however, gives some ground in late morning at 1.4495 dollars against 1.4509 late Tuesday. Oil prices retreated Wednesday in the opening in New York, as a result of fears of increased oil reserves and the stalled negotiations on the U.S. budget. To 15 hours, on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 98.38 dollars, down 1.21 dollars compared to the previous day.

On the macroeconomic front, despite a weaker economic environment, companies seem to want to continue to invest. This is the signal that can be drawn numbers of orders for capital goods in the second quarter."It's rather good news and support for the fragile figure of GDP growth in the second quarter," notes Philippe Weachter, director of economic research at Natixis AM.

Weekly crude inventories are still waiting for this day before the release of the Beige Book Federal Reserve expected after the close of European stock.

Rain of business publications

The side of values, the American online distribution Amazon (5.47% to 225.90 dollars) has published better than expected results despite a decline of almost 8% of net profit for the second quarter, to 191 million. Based on the number of shares, the benefit amounts to 41 cents, above the 35 cents expected by analysts.Sales, up from 51% to 9.91 billion dollars, has also exceeded expectations.

The group of defense and aerospace Boeing (1.68% to 71.34 dollars) exceeded market expectations on Wednesday with earnings up 20% in the second quarter, driven by good numbers of its commercial aircraft, and it has raised its forecast.

The U.S. chemicals group Dow Chemical (2.26% to 36.66 dollars) recorded a net profit increase (73.4%) to $ 982 million, boosted by record sales in emerging markets, and said he was "optimistic" for the second half of the year.

The U.S. conglomerate General Electric (-1.34% to 18.31 dollars) ca waived divest its rental cars it had planned to sell earlier this year, said Tuesday a spokesman for the group.

Delta Air Lines (-4.13% to 7.69 dollars) recorded a decline in quarterly profit on fuel costs that exceeded the one billion dollars. Excluding items, earnings per share of the airline stood at $ 0.43 per share, against $ 0.44 expected by analysts.

Microprocessor giant Intel (-1.18% to 22.62 dollars) has announced the appointment of its Executive Director Andy Bryant as Vice President of the Board, before he takes the presidency in May 2012 Estate of Jane Shaw. Bryant has spent 30 years at Intel, including 13 years as CFO.He became executive director in 2007.

Electronic Arts (1.30% to 24.12 dollars), which has recently invested in the games available from smartphones and tablets, has reported a decline of 3% of its turnover for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011-2012 to $ 524 million against an average estimate of analysts of 511 million.During this period, the group recorded a loss of 123 million euros against a deficit of 78 million a year ago.

Disney (-0.79% to 40.19 dollars) said he had "taken the first steps" to increase its majority stake in the Indian company UTV, which could lead to delist the giant local media.

Also note, the retail giant Wal-Mart (-0.17% to 53.50 dollars), which ensures expand its online offering, announced Tuesday that it was now possible to watch movies without downloading its website.

Always on the side of the truck several values ​​of the dimension must publish their results including Conoco Phillips and Visa.

Ranchers are in trouble

These rains helped to clarify some of the grain prospects.The agency has adjusted FranceAgriMer last week its forecast of wheat production, providing 32 million tons instead of 31. What remains below the 2010 harvest, already one of the less good the last two years.

If rain has arranged grains, however, it comes too late for some farmers. Given the difficulties to feed their animals for lack of grass in the meadows, it has been prematurely cut down some of their livestock online payday advance. For others, it was necessary to buy straw to grain. Contracts were signed with them, which helped to avoid speculation and keep the price around 25 euros per tonne.FNSEA has signed agreements with the SNCF for transporting the straw with the cost and highways to avoid tolls for trucks.

Despite these measures, the additional cost of purchasing straw will reach 10,000 to 50,000 euros per farm, according to the FNSEA. Some farmers will use a short-term loan from the Credit Agricole, at preferential rates (1.5 to 2%). This will allow them to wait until payment of the advance on the compensation of losses due to drought.

This advance, initially planned 100 million euros, has already been revised to 200 million and will be available by the National Fund for risk management in agriculture in mid-September. Nicolas Sarkozy also pledged to offset one year's repayments of loans to farmers in 2009.Christophe Chambon (Young Farmers) estimates that the measure "will give an impetus to helping farmers," but wants more: a deferred annuity of total loans.

Officially the project is not stopped.Communication amazing Indians necessarily leads to questions. The target market for these vehicles at very low cost, that is to say less than 3000 dollars, however, is huge. The goal is to put millions of Indians who use two-and three-wheeled rickshaws that the famous Bajaj is one of the leaders in the car.

Difficulties for the Nano

But the economic model is not easy to find, as shown by the difficulties encountered by the Tata Nano, the pioneer of its kind launched in 2008. Tata has indeed had to increase the price of the Nano several times since its launch. Today it is sold at a price of about $ 4,000 against $ 2,500 at the presentation of the project faxless payday advance. In addition, the model has undergone a number of technical problems, which has dented its image among consumers. Result: sales prove disappointing.At June 30, less than 22,000 had been passed Nano on the previous twelve months. Far from the target of 250,000 vehicles in stride.

To compete with the Nano is that Renault and Nissan sign an agreement with Bajaj in 2007. Bajaj should design the vehicle, which will be sold by Renault and Nissan. The first date given for such marketing is in 2010. It then slides to 2011 and 2012. Yet this is a purely theoretical date, since the decision to launch this vehicle has never been officially made. And nothing says it will be taken, especially after the delay yesterday. It would not be the first disappointment for Renault in India. In April 2010, the group had in fact ended a joint venture with Mahindra & Mahindra, which produced, with little success, Logan. These difficulties do not however call into question the ambitions of Renault in India.The Diamond brand has even made one of its three priority countries in development. It has a factory in Chennai, which already manufactures the Nissan Micra. And introduced an aggressive new product launches. For a month, the Fluence sedan is marketed. The Koleos 4 × 4 will follow in September. And announcements are expected for the new salon in New Delhi, to be held next January.

• Those who left

Alain Bokobza, Societe Generale: "The atmosphere at the beginning of the year was too good, the consensus of economists was very optimistic expectations for the generic market. Deterioration of expectations without fundamental change in the medium term is therefore an opportunity to enter to participate in a better performance in the next 12 months.Yields in the bond market are very low now, a return on equity should be considered. "

Bertrand Lamielle, B * capital, "is a good time if you have clearly in mind what it means to be on the market in general and at this moment in particulier.C is to say, a long investment horizon, and a taste for risk. Moreover, at this time, the market is growing tension due to issues of state debt, the slowdown in the U.S., the anti-inflation emerging and supports historical market business publications, are made question following the latest 'profits warnings. " In short, right now, the market sees the glass half empty. "

Pierre Sabatier, Primeview "Correction from April 29 to June 26 allowed investors to incorporate most of the bad news into stock prices.The slowdown is a fact, but there is no recession, and companies, as European American, show an iron (net margin rates are the highest with 10.5% for the S & P 500 and 9.5 % for the Stoxx 600). This frees upside potential in the short term, particularly in the euro zone and areas that have recently been the most penalized (banking, energy, telecommunications) "

Matthew Grouès, Lazard Brothers Management: "With less than ten times the results looking, European equity valuations are not expensive and offer a nice room for improvement, especially as earnings forecasts in Europe are measured.If we can not rule out further volatility, particularly because the debate on the debt ceiling in the United States, current levels we always seem to be very relevant to exposure to shares. "

Catherine Garrigues, Allianz GI Investments Europe: "The valuation levels, the shares are attractive and the dividends are interesting. However, the risk premium remains high due to the uncertain macroeconomic environment. "

Alexandre HEZEZ, Convictions AM: "We must begin to gradually reinvest in the market and take advantage of that. The market is on a level of stress due to the Greek crisis that has spread in recent weeks to the entire European banking sector.The downside risks are important, but they are largely integrated into the price including the promotion of European banks. "

Francois Chevallier, Leonardo Bank: "The trend remains fundamentally bullish, leaning on corporate profitability, the debt of American households and the emerging revolution. In addition, shares are still close to the support of their bullish channel (3800 points on the Cac 40). "

Nuno Teixeira, Schroders France: "Equity markets have been affected since the month of May largely by macroeconomic considerations, with the concern about the strength of U.S. growth, the end of quantitative easing program of Fed and growing concerns over the sovereign debt of countries of southern Europe.However, the recovery is on track, companies continue to show quality results – with an expected increase of more than 10% in 2011 – and have never had so much cash. The valuation multiples are more attractive when the assets have their bond yields remain unattractive levels. The risk appetite should pick up and equity markets regain positive momentum by the end of the year. "

• Those who fear a stirred

Jean-Louis Mourier, Aurel-BGC: "It's probably a little early, except under very opportunistic strategies and short term easy pay day loans. The risk was, in fact, be even agitated. Although the Greek appears to decrease risk, but it will not disappear overnight, at least in the minds of investors.The regulatory uncertainty on the banks remains high, resulting in volatility of the indices in which they have significant weight. Just before the "season" of publishing the results of the second quarter, equity analysts have revised downward their forecasts for net profit per share, while economists have reduced their expectations for economic growth, particularly in the U.S. States. After several seasons in which the surprises have dominated, there is a definite risk of seeing at least a balance between good and bad surprises on second quarter results and speeches may be prudent. "

Ginguene Olivier, Pictet Asset Management: "Be a little patient and wait for the summer, just as in 2010.We can still have a few target countries, Japan, for example, but still staying away from most European markets. There are currently too many uncertainties (deficits, monetary policy, corporate profit margins) and complacency (situation in Greece, governance issues) for only the upside potential is realized in the short term. The end of this summer could see the announcement of measures more credible medium-term, on the U.S. real estate or the European sovereign debt. "

Antoine de Salins, Groupama Asset Management: "It depends on your investment horizon: if it is long enough one or two years – the answer is yes because the fundamental valuations are attractive enough to double condition of accepting the intermediate volatility and to be selective in the choice of companies and sectors "

Patrick Moonen, ING Investment Management: "We n'envisagons not increase our equity exposure. A number of indicators remain unresolved: first, the situation of sovereign debt in the euro area, then, discussions about the U.S. debt ceiling and a further weakening macro economic data in the U.S. States. Finally, forecasting corporate earnings should include the slowdown in economic growth.Although most of these elements is temporary, we would like to see some confirmation of a return to stronger growth in the U.S. economy and control of the situation of Greek sovereign debt. We have reservations about the upcoming earnings season, several companies have already expressed serious warning on profits. We expect a point of entry into the market more favorable.

Arnaud Poutiers, IG Markets France: "After the recent recovery in recent days and continued high risk to attend the registration of new annual low, we believe it is not interesting to position themselves now to purchase with a view to medium term.The next six months should be dominated by a downward orientation of the Paris Stock Exchange, punctuated by intermediate times. "

Philippe Mimran, UFG-LFP: "For several weeks, the markets are nervous. Three main risks are the cause of this bout of weakness: Greece, the need to increase the ceiling of U.S. debt with a maturity of August 2 and finally undeniable signs of economic slowdown. The first two factors, we should have answers soon. On the economic downturn, we believe that the markets have largely addressed this risk. That's why we are quite in favor of a reweighting of risk in the markets during the summer. "

Mauro Ratto, Pioneer Investments, "On the CAC 40, it is not the right time.On U.S. stocks, yes, the sudden trend selling leads again an underestimation of most titles. "

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