"Because of the economic crisis, the shadow economy in 2010 will have increased in developed countries, after rising in 2009, wrote in a recent study by Friedrich Schneider, Austrian economist and specialist in the informal economy. According to his calculations, the share of the unofficial economy in the gross domestic product (GDP) in OECD countries rose by 13.3% in 2008 to 14% in 2010.In France, this ratio increased from 11.1% to 11.7%.

The increase may seem small, but it puts an end to the downward trend going back to the late 1990s. The Baltic and Mediterranean European countries experiencing the highest ratios. The shadow economy represents 25% of GDP in Greece and around 40% in Latvia and Estonia, as the work of Schneider. So many countries where the crisis hit harder than elsewhere.

To compensate for loss of income

Job losses, layoffs … revenue base with the crisis. "Many people try to compensate for their declining revenues through greater participation in informal transactions," says Friedrich Schneider.Among the top sectors fueling the underground economy, are the building trades and crafts, including the restoration, "he observes.

The underground economy is not always a bad thing. "I think the increase in informal activities during a crisis can avoid a recession even greater," said Friedrich Schneider. "Individuals and businesses earn more money, they can spend in the formal economy."

Fraud Investigations

In the Directorate of Legislation, recovery and service (Dirr), we measure the effects of the crisis on French companies thanks to anti-fraud investigations conducted in 2009. "A society that has problems is more likely to be in violation," said executive vice president of control, Jean-Michel Guerra.

To avoid bloodshed, but the controllers have been instructed to be conciliatory. The time granted in 2009 to companies in trouble when adjustments on previous years, usually stable, jumped 58%. Still, delinquencies have increased during the recovery of a half point, to 1.45%, from 12.5 billion euros.

One last figure: last year, the number of minutes prepared for working illegally jumped 27%, in part, it is true, thanks to control operations more focused and more frequent. The crisis should be felt in the figures of the anti-fraud encopre for several years. The controls on the activities of companies are indeed made for two to three years thereafter.

In detail, while turnover rose 6.3% to 9.67 billion euros in the first half of 2010 – a 13% growth in the Asia-Pacific – the Operating profit climbed 21.4% over the first six months of 2009, to 1.67 billion euros. The operating margin amounted to 17.3% as well. This is well beyond what the consensus expected, with a margin of 15.4% referred. And allowing it to regain its peak level reached in the first half of 2008.In the public sector, the margin rises to 20.4% while in the luxury, it is 28%.

In this context, the net profit of L'Oreal rises 21.2% to 1.316 billion euros. Per share, net income amounted to 2.39 euros, an increase of 15.3%.

Note also that the net debt stood at 1.67 billion euros at June 30, 2010, and is thus reduced from 300 million euros compared to late 2009.The debt ratio amounted to 11.7% of equity.

DG confident

Commenting on these figures, Jean-Paul Agon, CEO of L'Oreal, welcomes the group's strategic choice: "focus on innovations with high value added and affordable price, expansion into new product categories, accelerating the international expansion and investment in proactive ways advertising and promotion and research. "

"These findings fall within the virtuous spiral of growth of the group and confirm the vitality of the business model L'Oreal," he added.

A stock market as attractive

The L'Oréal closed Wednesday at 75.77 euros on the Paris Stock Exchange, posting a decline of 2.9% since the beginning of the year, while the index diversified European consumer goods ahead of 10 5% over the period.At this price level, the Group's market capitalization stood at 45.2 billion euros.

The value of trades on valuation multiples of about 17.5 times its earnings estimates by analysts for 2011, well below the average for the last five years (24.5 times) but considerably higher than the 14.7 overall average in the sector. The chifrfes indicating that L'Oreal shares are not expensive in terms of its performance. Natixis Securities aims, for example 97 euros for a potential increase in value by 28%.

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"We see a positive snowball effect on emerging market debt: a dozen countries have been under positive outlook by rating agencies, which herald a recovery of notes, analytical Anne-Sophie Girault, a specialist in this Market Aviva Investors. Moody's, Standard & Poor's and others see a positive view of the low debt ratio of developing countries, which averages less than 40% of gross domestic product. Twice as less developed countries.

The emerging markets have also gained credibility in the markets."They have improved their fundamentals, the local central banks are becoming more independent, inflation is under control and steering of public finances is good," Frank J. Nicolas, Natixis AM. And the economic outlook is much better than in Europe, for example.

Result: institutional investors have been interested for nearly ten months to market, providing stability. They take long positions. So far, only hedge funds were present in the short term, making the market very volatile. Today, the market is 360 billion of debt issued in dollars and 1.4 trillion dollars of debt issued in local currency.

Record demand

In this context, the demand for emerging market debt from the investment fund has beaten all records in the first half, according to the calculations of Aviva.At $ 31 billion, it almost reaches the levels of previous years in just five months.

Emerging now are they safe? "These are pseudo-safe investments," says Franck Nicolas. "Beware of Loved tobacco." Clearly, the emerging countries are always a risk of sudden reversal of the situation. And if their fundamentals, growth, inflation, debt-positive, "markets, very nervous now, can still cause a contagion" of the debt crisis in emerging countries, recognizes Anne-Sophie Girault.

At issue: a doubt on the prospects of the sector which has strengthened since China announced placing steel in his sights. According to a statement from the website of the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday, the country will give tax rebates on exports of several products including steel and nonferrous metals, and that from 15 July. China justifies this decision by the fear of overcapacity in the sector when the economy goes again on the basis of a policy of credit support.China, world's largest producer, saw its production continues to increase by 20.7% in May year on year to 56.1 million tonnes.

The government, which wants to avoid "blind investment" and too many expansion projects, puts an end to these tax rebates that block trade relations with many countries. EU and U.S. impose a particular anti-dumping tax to restore competition they feel more loyal to several Chinese steel products.

Approaching the summit of the G20, this news is seen by observers as a new important gesture by the Chinese authorities, after announcing an easing of the exchange rate of the yuan.

Arc elorMittal sees a slowdown in demand

Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal was one point on the demand in the sector.According to the world's number one steel company, the apparent demand and actual demand for steel should remain positive in the second half of the year, will face even slower during this period. "European consumers are in a waiting phase. At the same time, stocks are still low, "said Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of the group. The latter believes that the problem is the same in the United States.

According to Lakshmi Mittal, the economic situation remains bleak. "Housing is still visibly weak. The car is still robust. The market for capital goods began to improve and engineering improves. However, the steel industry should return to its pre-crisis level until 2012.

This view was confirmed on Monday spoke Federation World Steel Association (WSA) who believes that "if China, South Korea and Turkey have increased their production in May compared to 2007, the United States, Italy , Spain and Japan have not yet regained their pre-crisis level. " The WSA also notes that if demand is expected, stocks, themselves, continue to rise: Global steel production rose by 29.1% in May to 124 million tons, exceeding by nearly 10% of its levels before the crisis.

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The first defending Jerome Kerviel. The tenor of 60 years is known for his extensive knowledge of procedures. The portrayals of him by his colleagues suggest a punctilious lawyer, knowing by heart the workings of criminal law and able to read three times on his client's case to find the tiniest flaw.It is these obsessions that allow it to release in 1983 of gang members, including some Public Enemy, thanks to the discovery of a possible problem of not respected by the judge. The technical file Kerviel suits him: the lawyer had already sifted through piles of documents sent by Societe Generale and promises to update all the contradictions legal exonerate his client.

His international reputation, and ability to move from organized crime to politics, also explains the crowds at trial. Olivier Metzner was all big business in recent years: he has defended and obtained the release of Dominique de Villepin in the Clearstream case. He advises Continental in the Concorde trial.It also comes alongside the former dictator Manuel Noriega of Panama, the College of Physicians in its dispute with Dr. Stephane Delajoux, or alongside Françoise Bettencourt, daughter of the owner of L'Oreal.

"Lawyers for Kerviel serve us"

For Jean Veil, 62, Olivier Metzner mania of always wanting to delve deeper into the details of files, will play against him. Those who agreed to defend Societe Generale believes in an interview to Businessweek, "lawyers for Kerviel make us a great service. They ask questions that investigators did not pursue answers and contradict the thesis of Kerviel.

Olivier Metzner will be challenged as Jean Veil is also run in the pursuit of major trials. In his counter, the defense Dominique Strauss-Kahn in affair Mnef and the Credit Lyonnais deal with Bernard Tapie.Jean Veil is known for attracting a clientele but also many VIPs of CAC 40 companies, including Total and BNP Paribas. Jacques Chirac also benefits from advice through political and financial affairs.

This work is crazy lead two battles: the current defense of Guillaume Hannezo, former CFO of Vivendi-Universal, and co-accused Jean-Marie Messier and that of Societe Generale. He promised to defend the bank's reputation, harmed, he said, by the former trader.

The confrontation between the two men promised great moments. The planning of the trial announces first hearing Tuesday from 13.30. The battle that will engage the two tenors of the Paris bar 25 to last until Friday morning.No seat should remain free for long.

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The other highlight of the show should be for Airbus's announcement of a new Emirates A380 order with ten aircraft and farm options (at least a dozen well). Emirates is already the largest A380 customer with 58 orders. On May 13 at its conference statement, the company officials did not hide that, very pleased with the performance of large aircraft, they envisioned a new order.Asked Airbus declined comment.

Since its commissioning in October 2007 between Paris and Singapore by Singapore Airlines, the A380 has carried 5.5 million passengers to 18 destinations and made 14,000 flights. Airbus calculates that if these flights were made with the planes of the previous generation, they would have released into the atmosphere 620,000 tons of CO2.

His successor, Pierre-Andre de Chalendar confirmed its objective of a rebound results in 2010 and said to expect solid growth in operating income in the first half, compared to the same period last year as over the second half of 2009.

"Activity levels of the various businesses of the group in April and May clearly confirm the trend of improvement in March," said Pierre-Andre de Chalendar, which should add at the end of the AG function president than he is currently CEO.

But these signs of recovery are highly differentiated according to geographic location. "In Western Europe and North America, the recovery remains hesitant," he warned. "The effects of recovery plans are very uneven and the uncertainties on the financial strength of certain states, or issues relating to the consequences of public deficits, still gives an idea of the times". He added: "The contrast is striking with Asia and Latin America, where the crisis is already a distant memory."

A solid first half for

Pierre-Andre de Chalendar sees these geographic disparities confirmation that the group should continue its internationalization initiated by his predecessor and even accentuate, this time beyond European borders no faxing pay day loans. "I am convinced that Saint-Gobain will be in ten years (…) a larger group outside Europe, but a group rooted in its territories," he said.

The group made last year 16% of its turnover in Asia and other emerging countries – awarded to North America – 29% in France and 42% in the rest of Europe. He intended this year a large portion of these investments to high-growth areas, particularly in the solar sector.

Strong rebound margin

Pierre-Andre de Chalendar, who maintained the targets for the full year – strong growth in operating income at constant exchange rates, a sharp rebound in margins and free cash flow – for items delivered the semester ends in view of the improvement observed that since the end of the first quarter.

"Accordingly, and considering the impact of programs, achieving cost savings, operating profit of the group should continue to improve in the first half of 2010, with both strong growth over the first half of 2009, and sustained growth over the second half of 2009, "he said.

The interim results, that Saint-Gobain published July 29, will also benefit from favorable comparisons.The company posted an operating profit of 930 million euros in the first half of 2009 and 1.286 billion in the second.

The final demand is considered the most telling indicator of a recovery more or less solid now that business inventories "are more consistent with the level of final sales."

But on Wednesday, sales details, eagerly awaited by investors have been published. They emerged up 1.6% in March compared to February. A much larger increase than previously expected by analysts.

The first official estimate of U.S. GDP in the first quarter will be released April 30.Economists estimate that overall growth was around 2.5 to 3%.

Not enough for a rate hike

However, the Beige Book, published approximately every six weeks, highlights weaknesses in the economy of the country of Uncle Sam a job market that is getting better but still fragile, and a market of commercial real estate and business still worrying. The construction market also remains weak. And the public finances of the United States are subject to all the debates. A state of emergency seems to declare: no question of pushing the budget problems later, according to Ben Bernanke, otherwise the situation is even worse then.

A mixture of good and bad which reinforces the Fed's strategy of maintaining a flexible monetary policy.Considering growth "moderate" in a context of absence of inflationary pressures (+0.1% in March), the U.S. key interest rates will remain at a level "historically low". And this, again for a "prolonged period". The rates are between 0 and 0.25% since December 2008.

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The index is torn between Wall Street was disappointed Wednesday by job losses in the U.S. and Asia, which is displayed at the Green on Thursday morning (the Nikkei is at a high of 18 months and closed up 1.39% at 11,244 points).

On Thursday, France, today's figures are mainly in the automotive market in March quarter 2010 and first published by the Committee of French Automobile (CCFA). The market has been strong in March.

In Euro Zone, the manufacturing PMI will be scrutinized closely.

While in the United States, the weekly claims for unemployment benefits will help interpret the figures published yesterday on the job. The ISM index of manufacturing activity in March will be highlighted in 16 hours and is always carefully considered by investors. At the same time, construction costs for the month of February will be unveiled.

Sperian flies more than 15%

The Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde was heard on Wednesday with his German counterpart on financial regulation, to tax the banks. Berlin wants to impose this tax at EU level and internationally, with the support of Paris. In Germany, such a tax would yield 1 to 1.2 billion euros per year.

Another area for this Thursday, the wind, while the industrial expressed interest in energy.A report conducted by Capgemini Consulting, presented on Wednesday, lists 150 companies interested in wind power.

Technip (3.04%, to 62.03 euros) announced Thursday it had won two contracts in India for "engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of a generating unit hydrogen. The two contracts totaling approximately 115 million euros.

Sanofi-Aventis (0.98%, to 55.73 euros) won his fight against the counterfeiting of its generic drug Eloxatin, the United States. "Under the proposed agreement, the manufacturers would stop selling Generic generic oxaliplatin 30 June 2010 and would resume sales as of August 9, 2012 under a licensing agreement," said the pharmaceutical giant.

New episode in the case of U.S. tanker aircraft.The Pentagon announced Thursday that the tender of the U.S. Army will be extended by 60 days, to allow EADS to apply. EADS shares up on Thursday from 1.54% to 15.13 euros.

Outside the CAC 40, the private equity fund Cinven presented yesterday its plan to bid on friendly Sperian (15.38% to 70.05 euros). The offer price is 70 euros (1 euro slip attached). Cinven would start operation by the end of April. Natixis Securities estimates that the news is good.

Later publications, the real estate developer The New Builders (LNC) announced Thursday that he had returned to profitability in 2009 with a net profit of 10.9 million euros against a loss of 45.5 million euros in 2008 , which was the first for fifteen years.The shares give themselves 10.80%, to 7.59 euros.

Information known Wednesday evening said that the listing of the Barri?re group will take place before summer. The IPO process of Groupe Lucien Barriere started.

Manitou will publish Thursday.

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The debt of States remains a central concern.The results of the bonds issued yesterday by Greece and that was a test case in the eyes of the markets were "mixed" as Aurel BGC easy pay day loans. "Demand was only 7 billion euros to 5 billion borrowed, while the two previous operations had attracted at least three times more demand than supply," they explain.

The atmosphere was a little less gloomy on Wall Street. The U.S. consumer confidence rebounded more than expected in March. In addition, housing prices in the U.S. in January were unchanged from the same month a year earlier, the first three years. Apple was the star. The title claiming responsibility over 2% to a new record over $ 237.The Wall Street Journal the firm at the apple will produce a new version of its iPhone that would work on all mobile networks, ending the monopoly of AT & T. Investors are also banking on the success of the iPad, the new digital tablet that must be put on sale this weekend.