This consolidates its international stature when some surveys point out that the French consider that Francois Hollande might as well as the current host of the Elysee in international summits.

Of course, despite the best efforts of Sarkozy, Europe is found in Cannes in the position of poor student he wanted to avoid at all costs. But somehow, he still hopes to appear as the last dam before the flood of French turf. "What will tell the left Mélenchon Montebourg and Greek on the referendum? Will they hoped that the Greeks reject the agreement? "Asks one who sees Sarkozy already torn the left of the line to take.

A long-term

Meanwhile, the French president chose not to play saviors of the world. That humility prevails.

After suffering a decline of more than 3% yesterday, the Paris Stock Exchange on Tuesday recidivism holiday. The CAC 40 began the session on a sharp decline from 1.89% to 3185.30 points before to increase its losses. He plunged from 3.09% to 3142.59 points in the opening minutes of the transactions. In its wake, the Dax in Frankfurt was down 3.37% and the FTSE-100 in London lost 1.71%. Madrid plunged by almost 3%.

Traders are not present reassured by the fences down Asian markets this morning and those of the U.S. financial markets yesterday. They are again assailed by doubts about the debt situation in Europe. Operators including questioning the ability of banks to recapitalize."Without real support of the economy, the Agreement on Greece will not have any real effect," said Michael James.

Greece still worried

Greece, in fact, placed his fate in the hands of the people by deciding to hold a referendum on the decisions of the European Summit of 26 October. "The will of the Greek people be binding on us," said Prime Minister George Papandreou, who will also seek a confidence vote in Parliament on the agreement on debt. If 'no' wins, the Greek Constitution mandates the holding of early parliamentary elections. "This will plunge the country into an economic downturn and unprecedented political," says a member also left anonymously. The news was greeted coolly by the markets on Tuesday.

The European trend: in Frankfurt, Deutsche Bank loose 7.5%, 10% and Commerzbank. In Zurich, Credit Suisse, which announced 1,500 job cuts, collapses to 8.98%.

• EDF: -2.33% to 21.20 euros

The group said Monday it has reached an agreement with the Italian shareholders of Edison on the principles of the reorganization of the second Italian electrician, announced as a step closer to taking control of it.

• Air France-KLM: -3.03% to 5.34 euros

The atmosphere was quiet and posted a thirty flights per hour at Paris Orly airport on Tuesday morning, the fourth day of the strike of hostesses and stewards of Air France, found an AFP .

SNCF never ceases to celebrate 30 years of its TGV. After the launch last May of a train specially decorated, a new celebration takes place Saturday night in the Gare de Lyon in Paris. The President of the SNCF Guillaume Pepy, and Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Minister of Ecology and Sustainable Development, will attend a particular video show projected on the facade of the Gare de Lyon which left the first TGV, the September 22, 1981.

A few figures summarize the tremendous success of the first high-speed train developed by Alstom to accommodate all age groups, mobile executives, young, old … In all, nearly two billion passengers have taken in 30 years. 83% of French people have traveled at least once on board the TGV, which now serves 230 stations.

But the station pulled the alarm a few years ago commercial success, the TGV is not an economic powerhouse.The accounts of the industry are deteriorating, the fault, including the tolls the operator must pay to Réseau Ferré de France, the operator of the system for the use of high-speed lines. Today, nearly 30% of high-speed lines in circulation are not profitable. Guillaume Pepy regularly reminded that the company can no longer afford to invest in next-generation trains quick guaranteed personal loans.

The future railway landscape

Several projects of new lines are under way: the Rhine-Rhone, just opened, the Tours-Bordeaux, Brittany or the Loire region, not to mention the circumvention of Nimes and Montpellier. But others are virtual as the Paris-Caen. The success of the TGV has indeed given to the regions want to have "their" TGV.But the question of funding problem and use increasingly common in public-private partnership, a financing involving the state and communities in building a private group, is not a panacea.

After the festivities, Focus on the rail, a kind of rail Grenelle oragnisé by the Department, will again bring together industry players at round tables austere. Objective: To shape the future landscape railway … and give the French the prospect of other celebrations in the coming decades.

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Indeed, the U.S. agency Moody's would lower a notch notes BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole and two notches that of Societe Generale because of their exhibits to Greece. It must be said that these institutions have recently been pounded by investors. Since the beginning of the year, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale have lost between a "large" third and 60% of their value. On the first day of September, the losses of the three titles are respectively 17.45%, 22.33% and 27.69%.

BNP Paribas, the largest tumble CAC 40 ended on a fall of 12.35% to 26.12 euros. Societe Generale lost 10.75% to 15.57 euros. Yet the group announced Monday a plan of economy, a strong acceleration of asset sales of its portfolio and spread of new capital increase, according to a statement. Lastly, Crédit Agricole lost 4.82% to 10.64 euros.

Axa was down 9.73% to 8.48 euros and 6.23% to loose Natixis 2.25 euros.

A lack of concern Greece

In an attempt to reassure the markets, Michel Barnier, reiterated in late morning the "confidence" in the strength of European banks. "We need some keep their calm and composure," said European Commissioner for Financial Markets on the sidelines of a symposium on the new stock markets plummeting.

In fact, the concern is more and more about Greece. Until recently considered taboo, the prospect of failure now seems taken seriously. This Saturday, the German newspaper Der Spiegel, said Berlin was preparing for the possibility of bankruptcy of Athens, information denied by the Greek Minister of Finance.

In this context, Greece has promised two billion euros in additional savings.Welcoming the decisions of economy, the European Commission announced that donors of the country gathered in a Troika-Commission European Central Bank-International Monetary Fund would carry out their return to the country "in the coming days."

Finally the markets, concerned about the economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe have not been reassured by the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the G7, for lack of action.In fact, only a response of "strong" and "coordinated" to the crisis was discussed in the hearing closed, but without specifying a strategy.

To a deterioration of banks

United States, Barack Obama on Monday will submit to Congress the plan to revive the economy and employment announced Thursday.

In Italy, the government will explore new austerity measures this week said Giulio Tremonti, Minister of Economy. This weekend, the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi boasted of having "saved Italy" with its austerity plan. Moreover, Rome issued on Monday 11.5 billion euros of bonds to three months to a year in which interest rates have soared in a panic on the markets, said the Bank of Italy. The rates of securities a year enrolled in 4.153% against 2.959% in the previous similar operation on August 10.The rate securities have them three months almost doubled to 1.907% against 1.034%.

On the macroeconomic front, leading indicators of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report a "slowdown" of the world's major economies.

The euro to its lowest level against the yen

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remained sharply lower against the greenback Monday, falling below $ 1.35 even briefly, due to another bout of market panic response to the crisis in Europe. End of the session in Paris, the single European currency was worth 1.3645 dollars against 1.3649 dollars on Friday night. Earlier, the euro fell to 1.3495 dollars, its lowest level since Feb. 16. The euro also fell to its lowest level in a decade against the yen. The euro bought 104.64 yen against 105.91 yen Friday.In the early morning, the euro fell to 103.90 yen, its lowest level since June 2001.

As for oil, it appears in sharp decline. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery was trading at 86.84 dollars, down 40 cents from Friday.

Values ​​of the day

• NYSE Euronext: -7.12% to 18 euros

The merger between Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext will be endorsed by the European Commission, without major changes, officials said Friday, sources familiar with the matter.However, the European Commission will take action to force the markets to open.

• Air Liquide: -2.74% to 85.22 euros

The group of industrial and medical gases, Air Liquide announced Monday that it continued to bonds denominated in yuan, with the issuance of a second series for a total of 800 million yuan (about 100 million euros).

• Technip: -0.71% to 64.78 euros

The French engineering group has reached an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of the U.S. Global Industries, a specialist oil services submarines, to $ 1.07 billion (768 million) in cash.Technip will pay $ 8 per share Global Industries and the transaction amount includes net debt of $ 136 million, according to a French group.

• Delachaux: 2.61% to 81.77 euros

Trading in the action of the train manufacturer, suspended since Tuesday, resumed Monday. CVC Capital Fund and part of the family shareholders have filed a draft takeover Thursday simplified Delachaux at a price of 83 euros per share.

• Casino: -3.27% to 54.71 euros)

The French retailer Casino and its parent company announced Monday rally wearing their participation to 45.9% in CBD Pão de Açúcar (GPA), having acquired new shares of Brazilian group, the heart of a dispute between Casino and Crossroads this summer."This acquisition reaffirms the trust and commitment that rally, like Casino, place in Brazil and GPA," said Rally in a statement.

Note that the values ​​most dependent on economic conditions, including Saint Gobain (-5.48% to 28.71 euros), Alcatel Lucent (-5.05% to 2.20 euros) and ArcelorMittal (-3.38% to 12.58 euros) also suffer.

The speech of Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, did not like at all to investors. While the Paris Bourse continued its technical rebound until 2:30 p.m., the announcement by the institution of a revision of growth forecasts for the euro area has changed the trend. The ACC is back in the red and leaves about 1% to 2:50 p.m..

In the morning, the stock market continued its technical rebound began Tuesday after a session that saw the CAC 40 jumped more than 3.5% beyond 3000 points. The benchmark index of the Paris Stock Exchange began the day on a stable note, down from 0.08% to 3070.58 points. But at mid-session, the CAC in advance of 0.63% allowing the Paris index to approach the 3100 points to 30,092.41 points exactly. On other European exchanges, the movement is the same.London lost 0.08% at the opening before turning positive again (0.83%), while Frankfurt climbed 0.84%. As in Asia this morning, traders expect the set of indicators of days before taking a position. Unlike previous days, the agenda will be very busy in the U.S. and Europe.

Not surprisingly, the ECB rate remained at current levels, at 1.5%. But the European Central Bank has revised downwards its growth forecast Thursday for the euro area, and taking note of the recent negative developments in the economy and the mood in financial markets. The ECB now sees growth of 1.6% in 2011 for the euro area. However in June it had the opposite raised its forecast to 1.9%. For 2012 it expects growth of 1.3% against 1.7% previously.Inflation expectations remain unchanged at 2.6% this year and 1.7% next year.

The U.S. employment under the microscope

United States, several indicators of the health of the economy will fall during the session. Among them, the trade balance, weekly jobless claims and oil stocks. The consumer credit will be available after market in Europe.

Two discourses are also highly expected on Thursday, those of Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama. The Fed chief will speak at around 19 am, French time, the Economic Club of Minnesota. Investors await details about how the Fed intends to support the economy. This intervention will follow the publication yesterday of its Beige Book, which again reported a moderate growth.For his part, Bush will speak on Congress to 1 am, French time, on employment and growth. It should detail a plan for employment that would reach $ 300 billion, raised yesterday by the U.S. media.

In France, growth in employment has slowed

In France, INSEE announced that the dealer paid employment decelerated in the second quarter.Principally market sectors have created a total of 33,300 jobs over the period April to June, from 78,300 in the first three months of the year, an increase of 0.2% against 0.5% the previous quarter.

The trade deficit widened further in July, reaching 6.46 billion euros in seasonally adjusted data, weighed down by a rebound in imports, Customs officials said Thursday.

Moreover, according to the OECD, economic growth in developed countries could slow sharply, see stalling in the second half and central banks must be prepared to ease monetary policy by lowering interest rates or intervening on markets.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that growth in the G7 should not exceed 1.6% annualized in the third quarter and is expected to fall to 0.2% over the last three months of year. In France, activity is expected to increase only 0.9% and 0.4% annualized, against 1.8% and 1.9% previously expected.

On the currency side, the euro fell again in the late morning at 1.4079 dollar.Oil, he, rising as a result of the prolonged interruption of production in the Gulf of Mexico due to tropical storm: a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 41 cents to 89.75 dollars a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery takes 18 cents to 115 Internet Payday loans.98 dollars in morning trading.

Values ​​to follow on Thursday

• Banking

Stress tests imposed on European banks have made "transparency and clarity" on the strength of their balance sheets, said Wednesday night a Treasury official in the United States.

Banks react well. Among the largest increases in Société Générale took CAC 3.72% (at 20.01 euros), BNP Paribas 4.49% (at 33.06 euros) Crédit Agricole 3.06% (at 5.92 euros).Natixis took the head of the CAC 40 (4.77% to 2.65 euros).

• Areva (-0.20% to 20.74 euros)

The French nuclear group Areva said Thursday was ready to process the spent fuel still present on the site of Fukushima and propose to the Japanese government and the company Tepco lasting solutions to manage the post accident.

• Gemalto (5.46% to 35.43 euros)

The title leads increases the SBF 120, the group is in the midst of "road show", between August 26 and September 15, analysts point out. The action bounces also important on a technical device, which accentuates the rise in the stock, analysts note charts.Since August 25, the title was up over 13%.

• EADS (-0.85% to 21.69 euros)

The group is ready to dip deep into a war chest of $ 16 billion (11.3 billion euros) to finance its expansion in the U.S. and is in preliminary discussions with several potential targets, said Wednesday its chief executive for North America.In addition, the European missile manufacturer MBDA, in part by EADS, would be forced to reduce its workforce by 400 jobs by 2015, according to La Tribune.

Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS, is also considering a third increase its production capacity in one of its scenarios for 2018 to meet demand, the success of the A320 Neo scarce slots delivery before 2020, The Tribune reported Thursday.

• TF1 (0.34% to 10.38 euros) and EuropaCorp (-0.91% to 3.90 euros)

The two groups announced Wednesday the signing of a Framework Agreement for development to produce the series in English for television.

• Ipsos: -2.20% to 26.90 euros

The group has launched a capital increase in cash of approximately 200 million euros to finance the purchase of Synovate.

• GDF Suez: + 0.32% to 20.55 euros

The group will transfer to the Italian ENI participation of 10.4% in gas fields in the North Sea to pay off debt, reported Thursday Les Echos.

• Technip: + 1.73% to 67.03 euros

In consortium with National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC), the group won a contract worth about $ 500 million for engineering, procurement and construction of the project Satah Full Field Development, a field located 200 km northwest of Abu Dhabi (UAE).

• Sanofi: -0.54% to 49.65 euros

Genzyme, the biotechnology laboratory of the U.S. bought by the French group, was unable to deliver its drug Fabrazyme in August, although it promised to doctors and patients to meet this deadline.U.S. regulators have made public Wednesday letters from Genzyme dated August 26 and 25 where the laboratory apologizes to its customers and for people with Fabry disease, a rare genetic disease, for "any confusion and disturbance "caused by the delay.

• France Telecom: + 0.37% to 12.19 euros, Vivendi: -1.06% to 15.89 euros

The new tax passed by the government as part of the new austerity plan should give priority, penalize these two groups, according to Les Echos. France Telecom should be paid to these measures between 300 and 500 million. Vivendi would see him, his taxes increased from 250 to 400 million.

Next recommendation goes to Credit Suisse under-performance against neutral Ipsen (0.28% to 23.02 euros). Societe Generale goes with the purchase of Biomerieux (2.09% to 71.40 euros).

"Ridiculous." So that Arnaud Lagardère, General Partner of the group of the same name, described the video circulating on the Internet featuring a photo shoot for his new bride languorous. Like the latter, who described a few weeks ago of "kitsch," Arnaud Lagardere said he was trapped: "If I thought it was made for broadcast as well, I never would have accepted" he says in an interview with Les Echos on Tuesday.

Since its release this summer, like the boss is indeed tarnished. In the national and international press, Arnaud Lagardère towel criticism on their sense of priorities and its presence in the group."Make me be the trial of a person who is too invested in his company who do not spend enough time, as this is the video: ridiculous! I have absolutely no lessons from anyone, "says he.

More generally, Arnaud Lagardère believes that criticism of his private life have no place: "Maybe I'm an atypical pattern, so what? Being happy in his private life is certainly a source of balance for an entrepreneur. This does not have to be dedicated and devoted to this group I love more than anything. "

Not for sale

Arnaud Lagardère advantage of this interview to refocus the debate on the strategy of his group. He says that contrary to rumors in the markets, it has no intention to separate from other assets after the sale of its international Hearst magazines."There is absolutely no discussion of ongoing sale," he slice.

Since the disappointing interim results of the group, the sounds of the show hall for sale by Lagardère of one of its four branches in order to reduce debt or invest. For each, Arnaud Lagardere denies. Including sport for the pole, which helped to seal the group's results: "While the results are not yet up to our ambitions. But I remain convinced that it will remain a growth engine for years to come. "

"I think the interests of our shareholders"

Arnaud Lagardère, however, suggests the possibility of "acquisitions of magazines in France," without further detail. The boss of media group also speaks to reinvest the cash generated from the sale of its magazines in its four branches. Efforts will be made investments on the Internet, weakness of Lagardère."In our group there was a historical culture of the paper so ingrained that it was difficult to immediately turn the digital," admits the owner of the group.

Arnaud Lagardère also a thought for shareholders who suffer the fall of the title. The action Lagardère a loss of 17.40% over a week, and nearly 38% since the beginning of the year. "The group is considering a share buyback or an extraordinary dividend. We must reward the loyalty of shareholders who support us, "said he.

Finally, in the case EADS, Arnaud Lagardere reaffirms its wish to become chairman of the board of specialist aviation despite his intention to free up capital after the exit of the A350."It was one of the express terms set by the Lagardère Group to give the first presidency in our German partners in 2007," he recalls.

"In ten years we will own 100% of our assets and will not be clear neither in aeronautics or in the distribution of foreign press," promises Arnaud Lagardère. At the Paris Stock Exchange, remarks reassure action Lagardère climbed 1.22% to 19.53 euros in a market up 0.56% to 10.40.

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The people of the East Coast of the United States are preparing for a weekend out of the ordinary. In anticipation of Hurricane Irene, the authorities announced palsy or slowing of most means of transport that normally innervate New York Area. Once is not custom, the inhabitants of the Big Apple, including 250,000 living near the coast are being evacuated, will have to live in slow motion.

For security, the three New York airports – JFK, La Guardia and Newark – will be closed Saturday for aircraft arriving at noon (18 hours Paris time). The flights from these airports, however, may take off until further notice. This is an extraordinary disruption to an area that typically concentrates the air flow one of the densest in the world: each year, as many as 100 million passengers pass through this metropolis.This weekend, nearly 8,000 flights should be canceled.

Like most of his counterparts, Air France announced Friday the cancellation of all flights to New York JFK on Saturday and Sunday, while disturbances are waiting on those provided to and from other cities the coast, like Washington, Philadelphia or Boston. The resumption of service, from Monday, could also be laborious and cause further disruption, have also warned the airlines.

Transport suspended

Measure more tangible for the people, public transport will be suspended in the Big Apple this Saturday from noon until probably Monday rush hour instant credit report. The subway, buses and railways do not circulate. Motorists have also been asked to leave their cars at home until the alert is lifted.If winds exceed this weekend 96 km / hour, the authorities of the State of New York have also warned they would close the main roads towards the city, and some bridges.

Given the restriction of transportation and possible damage caused by the passing of Irene, the inhabitants were ordered to stockpile water and food in preparation for the weekend. "Water is our product that sells best," noted the retailer Wal-Mart on Friday. Many are those who are armed with power generators in case of power failure.

To address these potential damages, the cost could rise to nearly $ 12 billion according to consulting firm Kinetic Analysis, U.S. authorities are preparing to deploy in new ways.900 National Guardsmen and 2,500 workers in the electricity sector include ready to intervene in case of power failure. All these measures aim to avoid at all costs repeating a scenario to Katrina, the hurricane that was painfully struck New Orleans in 2005.

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Essilor International is innovative. According to the global glasses, "75% of wearers expect an anti-fog solution." To meet this demand, the group decided to create anti-fog lenses under the name of Optifog. This new "represents a disruptive technology," with a "layer with hydrophilic properties," said Essilor. With this new product, which is "all continents", Essilor International is "1.2 billion consumers worldwide."

Results aside, the mood is set fair. The group recorded the first half revenues up 6.9% to 2.06 billion euros and net profit up 30.7% to 258.2 million euros. Adjusted net income per share was 1.25 euro, up 9.3%.

Essilor attributed these results to the "increase in volumes related to the expansion strategy in high growth markets, the rapid development of the supply in the mid-range" and the "growth of industrial investment."

Context "increasingly uncertain"

These performances allow the group to maintain its growth objectives in sales "between 6% and 8%" (excluding currency and acquisitions, strategic) for this year, despite "an economic environment more uncertain." Essilor also wants to maintain the high level of profitability, excluding strategic acquisitions.

The specialist in ophthalmic optics says it "will continue to rely on innovation, operational efficiency and financial capacity to consolidate its position in the high end."The group also intends to "continue its conquest in the mid-range and benefit from the rapid expansion of high-growth countries."

At the Paris Bourse, this news is greeted coldly. In early trade, the title Essilor loses 0.11% to 53.07 euros in a market down 0.05%.

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The Paris Bourse is holding its breath on Tuesday. The CAC 40, which was closed yesterday up, goes back to red at the opening, losing 0.73% to 3215.50 points. A trend that was accentuated with the release of German GDP is very disappointing. Deutsche Börse also accused the coup, the Dax falling by 2.40% to 5877.91 points. In London, the FTSE-100 index of the main values ​​lost 1.13% to 5290.35 points. Furthermore, the Madrid Stock Exchange lost 1.65%, that of Zurich 0.63% and 2.50% in Milan.

In addition to the sharp slowdown in the German economy, the Gross Domestic Products (GDP), Spanish and Dutch experienced a similar fate over the same period, rising by only 0.2%, respectively, and 0.1%, amid crisis debt.

In this context, the summit between Sarkozy and Merkel spent on the economic governance of the euro area is even more expected.Combined these on global markets, all eyes will be on the Elysee Palace in Paris to take place a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, to improve governance in the euro area . The two leaders will meet from 16 hours and hold a press conference around 18:30.

Investors already know that he must not expect miracles, especially not that the two largest economies in the euro zone agreed to set up Euro-bonds, which would be financially harmful to Berlin. "Do not expect anything dramatic" at the end of the meeting Monday said a spokesman for Angela Merkel, that "people expect once again a spectacular blow."It should only be to continue discussions on the governance of the euro area, following decisions taken by Heads of State and Government of the European end of July.

Operators still expect progress on this issue. "If nothing is announced, it will mean that there is a deep rift between Paris and Berlin markets can get excited again," warned Yves Marc, sales of shares in Global Equities.

Meanwhile, Asian markets have already set the tone with very mixed sessions, despite the good momentum on Wall Street, which closed yesterday on a sharp rise. Oil down with a barrel of "light sweet crude" that is losing 45 cents to 87.43 dollars and that of Brent which cedet 42 cents to 109.49 dollars.Sign of nervousness room, gold was up, quoting around 1767 dollars per ounce at the opening in Hong Kong dollars in 1744 against the previous day closing in New York.

German growth slows

In addition to the meeting, investors will be occupied by the many indicators that will be published on both sides of the Atlantic. Germany has announced a particularly sharp slowdown in growth in the second quarter. German gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter compared to the first, where he still displayed an increase of 1.3%.

Economic growth also slowed in the second quarter in the euro area, 0.2% from 0.8% in the first quarter, according to data released Tuesday by the EU statistics office Eurostat.However, the euro area recorded a trade surplus of 900 million euros in June, after a surplus of 200 million in May.

In the U.S., markets will learn in the afternoon of housing starts, prices for import and export and especially of industrial production. This indicator is closely watched as markets worried about more and more sluggish growth of the world's largest economy.

Values ​​to follow

On the corporate side, the news is much thinner. Bank stocks are again followed. They fall before the meeting Sarkozy-Merkel. BNP Paribas (-1.63% to 36.91 euros), Societe Generale (-1.65% to 24.39 euros), Natixis (-2.34% to 3.04 euros), AXA (-1.69 % to 11.05 euros), Credit Agricole (-0.95% to 6.67 euros) take the rating down.

GDF Suez (-2.27% to 20.42 euros) is added to the list of preferred values ​​of UBS.

EADS (-2.50% to 21.46 euros): Russian Transaero airline will buy 12 Airbus A320. Qantas has in turn announced the purchase of 110 Airbus A320s and the deferral of delivery of six Airbus A380 jumbo jets.

The absolute defense of the financial score

Do everything to prevent France to lose its "AAA" rating! Since the U.S. has been damaged on Friday by the rating agency Standard & Poor's, the pressure has increased dramatically over the last states still rated AAA in the world. Keep this precious document is now the major objective of the French government, for reasons both political and economic. A downgrade of France in fact lead to mechanically increase the cost of debt refinancing. But with 47 billion a year in interest payments, the debt burden is the second largest budget item in order of importance. At such high levels, any runaway deficit could swing into a downward spiral.

For now, however, there is no indication that France is threatened.On the contrary: since the beginning of the new crisis, two weeks ago, the rate at which the Treasury borrows on the markets – and ten years – fell by 3.44% to 3.07%, which is one point among the lows. In practice this means that investors continue to buy the French debt they still consider very safe. Moreover, Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch have confirmed all three since the beginning of the week's AAA rating and France recalled that the note was accompanied by a "stable" outlook, that is, that they do not intend to revise the medium term. This does not prevent the wildest rumors running now in the trading rooms. Bercy had to lie to "formally" on Wednesday that France would be degraded."We want the managers of U.S. pension funds who question the quality of the French debt," says a French banker. To silence these questions that may to be growing, the executive is forced to accelerate its program of fiscal adjustment.

The unknown growth in 2012

Thursday morning, INSEE publish the number of French growth in the second quarter of 2011. Officially, the institute provides an increase of 0.4% of GDP. But economists expect a lower figure. Some do not hesitate to bet, even on a stagnation in activity between March and June After the strong rebound in GDP in the first quarter (+0.9%) consumption and industrial production have turned red, for technical reasons (end of scrapping, rising oil prices …) but also because global economy is now declining payday loans in one hour.The surprise meeting at the Elysee on Wednesday was probably meant to anticipate bad news ahead. "We have always said that the second quarter would be worse than the first and the activity will then return later this year," cautions there be in the entourage of Baroin.

A priori, the government should maintain its forecast of 2% growth this year, he still has a great chance to meet with the dynamics of the first month. However, doubt increases over the year 2012. Initially planned 2.5% growth for 2012 was revised down in May to 2.25%. This forecast now appears optimistic. Even before the storm in financial markets, experts Treasury recommended to display a more conservative figure of 2%."We want to be politically and economically credible our expectations: whether to revise downwards the growth we'll see," says one in the entourage of Valérie Pécresse.

More rigorous perspective

Baroin and Valerie Pécresse continue to hammer home: the objective of "intangible" is to keep the deficit reduction goals that provide for a deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2011 and 4.6% in 2012. And that, "regardless of the level of growth," says one at Bercy. In other words, if the government is lowering its forecast for GDP in the coming days, they must be accompanied by such additional savings. For now, it is expected that the 2012 budget to be submitted end of September, involves three billion euros in savings on tax loopholes. It will probably do much more.Gilles Carrez (UMP), General Rapporteur of the budget in the Assembly, recommends at least 5 billion economy. If the amount is not yet determined the method, it begins to ripen. "It's likely that we proceed as in 2011," it says in the entourage of Baroin. This implies a general planing existing niches – "for everyone involved" – and a removal of devices deemed the most unjust. Companies are in the crosshairs this time, especially large compared to SMEs. Determine precisely the niches will be deleted at stake in the meeting of August 24.

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