"Because of the economic crisis, the shadow economy in 2010 will have increased in developed countries, after rising in 2009, wrote in a recent study by Friedrich Schneider, Austrian economist and specialist in the informal economy. According to his calculations, the share of the unofficial economy in the gross domestic product (GDP) in OECD countries rose by 13.3% in 2008 to 14% in 2010.In France, this ratio increased from 11.1% to 11.7%.

The increase may seem small, but it puts an end to the downward trend going back to the late 1990s. The Baltic and Mediterranean European countries experiencing the highest ratios. The shadow economy represents 25% of GDP in Greece and around 40% in Latvia and Estonia, as the work of Schneider. So many countries where the crisis hit harder than elsewhere.

To compensate for loss of income

Job losses, layoffs … revenue base with the crisis. "Many people try to compensate for their declining revenues through greater participation in informal transactions," says Friedrich Schneider.Among the top sectors fueling the underground economy, are the building trades and crafts, including the restoration, "he observes.

The underground economy is not always a bad thing. "I think the increase in informal activities during a crisis can avoid a recession even greater," said Friedrich Schneider. "Individuals and businesses earn more money, they can spend in the formal economy."

Fraud Investigations

In the Directorate of Legislation, recovery and service (Dirr), we measure the effects of the crisis on French companies thanks to anti-fraud investigations conducted in 2009. "A society that has problems is more likely to be in violation," said executive vice president of control, Jean-Michel Guerra.

To avoid bloodshed, but the controllers have been instructed to be conciliatory. The time granted in 2009 to companies in trouble when adjustments on previous years, usually stable, jumped 58%. Still, delinquencies have increased during the recovery of a half point, to 1.45%, from 12.5 billion euros.

One last figure: last year, the number of minutes prepared for working illegally jumped 27%, in part, it is true, thanks to control operations more focused and more frequent. The crisis should be felt in the figures of the anti-fraud encopre for several years. The controls on the activities of companies are indeed made for two to three years thereafter.

The words of John Chambers, who presides over the rating of 118 countries, have weight. When Standard & Poor's lowers a note means that the state has more chance of bad repay its debts. The investor who buys debt of this state in the form of bonds, then will demand higher interest rates corresponding to the greatest risk. Ultimately, this greatly increases the cost of debt management for the country.

Rigor required

While the return approach, the warnings from rating agencies are increasing. The moment is critical: it is between September and December that states buckle their budgets for the coming year. France, recently lectured by the rating agency Moody's, in a report on the countries rated, has already introduced measures of rigor.

In the "Triple A", London is also in the crosshairs of Standard & Poor's. The notes of the United Kingdom is already "on negative watch" last step before a possible degradation. Despite an initial austerity plan in place before the summer, the government of James Cameron should show "a little more determination to fight against the deficit" in the next budget review in October, said John Chambers faxless payday advance .

How the states will fail

The austerity measures already submitted or planned do not really reassure the markets. In a note titled "Do not ask if the states will fail, but rather how," the U.S. bank Morgan Stanley, is sounding the alarm. Developed countries already burdened by debt levels as they can not take all their commitments, warns the author of the note, Arnaud Mares.

Pensioners, benefit recipients or taxpayers will be affected by the plans of rigor. "It would be dangerously optimistic to believe that in this context, investors will remain forever protected against loss of income that will affect everyone," said Arnaud Mares.

According to this former analyst at Moody's, the states will not officially bankrupt. They rather use "the financial oppression."Specifically, holders of government bonds will be subject to interest rates artificially low or downright negative, ie less than inflation.

Scoring Criteria

To determine a rating, a rating agency monitors both the debt level and growth of the country. If the debt is high and growth is weak, the state will have more difficulty in meeting its commitments vis-à-vis investors. On the one hand because the burden of repayments will weigh too large a share in its budget. On the other hand, because it may raise less taxes in times of prosperity, income taxes depending on the health of businesses and households.

In detail, while turnover rose 6.3% to 9.67 billion euros in the first half of 2010 – a 13% growth in the Asia-Pacific – the Operating profit climbed 21.4% over the first six months of 2009, to 1.67 billion euros. The operating margin amounted to 17.3% as well. This is well beyond what the consensus expected, with a margin of 15.4% referred. And allowing it to regain its peak level reached in the first half of 2008.In the public sector, the margin rises to 20.4% while in the luxury, it is 28%.

In this context, the net profit of L'Oreal rises 21.2% to 1.316 billion euros. Per share, net income amounted to 2.39 euros, an increase of 15.3%.

Note also that the net debt stood at 1.67 billion euros at June 30, 2010, and is thus reduced from 300 million euros compared to late 2009.The debt ratio amounted to 11.7% of equity.

DG confident

Commenting on these figures, Jean-Paul Agon, CEO of L'Oreal, welcomes the group's strategic choice: "focus on innovations with high value added and affordable price, expansion into new product categories, accelerating the international expansion and investment in proactive ways advertising and promotion and research. "

"These findings fall within the virtuous spiral of growth of the group and confirm the vitality of the business model L'Oreal," he added.

A stock market as attractive

The L'Oréal closed Wednesday at 75.77 euros on the Paris Stock Exchange, posting a decline of 2.9% since the beginning of the year, while the index diversified European consumer goods ahead of 10 5% over the period.At this price level, the Group's market capitalization stood at 45.2 billion euros.

The value of trades on valuation multiples of about 17.5 times its earnings estimates by analysts for 2011, well below the average for the last five years (24.5 times) but considerably higher than the 14.7 overall average in the sector. The chifrfes indicating that L'Oreal shares are not expensive in terms of its performance. Natixis Securities aims, for example 97 euros for a potential increase in value by 28%.

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After biting the nose in the first hour of trading, the benchmark index of Wall Street still has erased much of its losses. At closing, it fell by 0.56% to 10,213.62 points. The S & P 500 fold, from 0.37% to its 1071.69 points. While the Nasdaq managed to regain the green, scrounge 0.04% to 2179.76 points.

U.S. stocks have relapsed this week, especially Thursday and Friday amid renewed fears of further slowdown in activity, even recession.

"There is an internal struggle within the market right now, between the flow of economic indicators is rather disappointing for 48 hours and the balancing force that represents the multiplication of impressive announcements of mergers and acquisitions," noted Craig Peckham, Jefferies ."The market tries to anticipate a downward revision to corporate profits, which has not yet taken place, added the analyst.

Thursday night the U.S. stock markets were sharply accused the coup after the publication of bad numbers, especially on the employment front. In fact, new listings weekly unemployment rose by 12,000 for up to 500,000, while economists had forecast a drop instead. This setback has undermined all European stock exchanges, down nearly 2% on Thursday evening. The stock, Wall Street head, are more worried about the U.S. recovery is becoming increasingly threatened, yesterday, two other macroeconomic indicators have further disappointing disappointment consecutive ill-digit unemployment in the industrial activity Philadelphia region has not improved as the markets would have liked.The composite index of leading indicators the Conference Board is certainly left in timid increase, but suggests "a very slow recovery until the end of the year."

The earnings season gives way to mergers and acquisitions …

On the corporate side, while all the companies in the Dow Jones have now released their quarterly earnings, mergers and acquisitions also certainly inspire markets.But if they reassure investors about the health of businesses able to play cash on the table, they can not counter the extreme distrust aroused by signs of a growing number of weak U.S. recovery.

GAP (2.48% to 18.15 dollars) is reaping the fruits of this Friday's announcement the day before the quarterly earnings above expectations, thanks to the rebound in sales recorded by its brands Banana Republic and Old Navy.

PT (-0.86% to 40.42 dollars) and Dell (0.11% to 12.05 dollars) will be closed on the ball quarterly results.HP has shone with a quarterly profit up 6%, and Dell has not been left behind, with sales and earnings above expectations for the second quarter and expects a continued recovery in demand professionals for PCs in the coming quarters.

The world leader in microprocessors, Intel, announced on Thursday that he offered the world's number two computer security, Mc Afee (-0.07% after 57% yesterday), $ 7.6 billion .

While the hostile bid from BHP Billiton (-0.97% to 66.70 U.S. dollars) Potash (-0.75% to 147.72 dollars) continues to make waves on the Stock Exchange (Fitch Ratings has put on hold BHP Billiton), the offensive yesterday from Dell, the German publisher of software Wirecard rose Friday on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange after the entry by traders of a possible interest of Visa for the company.The title Wirecard advanced 2.05% to 8.71 euros while the action Visa German Stock Exchange fell by 0.35% to 55.69 euros. Visa back on Friday from 0.39% to 71.35 dollars.

Boeing (-0.59% to 64.24 dollars). The United States announced Thursday that they were using, like the European Union a month earlier, the ruling in June by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the dispute over public funding for the aircraft manufacturer Airbus. It was also learned that Thai Airways talks with Boeing and EADS for 30 aircraft

"Nobody seems eager to take advantage of market declines to buy shares, at least for now", believes Patrick O'Hare of Briefing.com financial site."This reluctance reflects a decline in market confidence about the ability of companies to achieve their performance goals in the second half of the year."

Influenced by the European public debt crisis, the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and fears of slowing global economy, U.S. equity indices closed sharply lower Wednesday for the second consecutive month to reach their worst quarter since the second quarter of 2002. They returned to their lowest level in eight months … Yesterday, the Dow Jones finished down 1% to 9774 points, the S & P 500 also lost 1% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

The banking sector might react after the removal of a proposed tax credit and the approval by the House of Representatives, the final version of the broader reform of financial regulation in the United States.President Barack Obama reiterated Wednesday during a speech in Racine (Wisconsin, North) that the bill would "prevent a crisis" such as that of 2007-2009. "This is a reform that will protect our economy from the recklessness and irresponsibility of some," he said.

On the face of macroeconomic indicators, the employment figures expected Friday should mark a return to job losses after five months of improvement. On Wednesday, already, enrollment weekly unemployment rose unexpectedly last week in the United States, according to the Labor Department. Applications for unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to $ 472,000 in the figures as at June 26, while economists on average expected a decline to 452,000 over the figure of 457,000 originally reported.This does not augur the best.

Even more than other countries engine of global growth, China has seen, precisely, growth prospects are heavily depressed by the Conference Board and the Chinese manufacturing activity slowed in June, according to two indices Chinese purchasing managers released Thursday.

Investors will closely monitor the repayment by the European banks, expected on Thursday. They will have to repay 442 billion euros Thursday to the European Central Bank, with the maturing of a loan granted exceptional giant a year ago.

On the face values

Technology stocks, IT and telecom will be well attended.

Setbacks Chinese Google could find exits.The license renewal application filed by the U.S. giant in China will be considered by the government and the result will be published shortly, have indeed shown this Thursday, the Chinese media. The U.S. group has shown good will by announcing in Beijing that he would terminate the automatic rerouting of its Chinese site to its site of Hong Kong. The track lost 0.11% to 444.47 dollars.

The internet group Yahoo! else has announced Wednesday that its board had approved a share repurchase program of $ 3 billion over three years. During Wednesday's closing, this amount represents approximately 15% of the market capitalization of the group.After the announcement, the stock price Yahoo!, The lowest since a year has risen by 1.59% to 14.08 dollars.

The Microsoft IT group (+ 0.56% to 23.14 dollars) announced Wednesday it would gradually stop marketing its phone launched in April, the Kin, especially for the youth market of amateur social networks. " Microsoft has decided to focus on the launch (OS) Windows 7 and Phone will not deliver the Kin in Europe this fall as planned, "the group said in a statement

The small business Internet distribution Woot, offers its followers not more than one model per day at deflated prices, said Wednesday that she was redeemed by the giant Amazon, without specifying financial terms of the transaction."The name of a dog! Woot has signed an agreement with Amazon – yes, then the Amazon – to become an independent subsidiary of the giant e-commerce, "said the little Texas company on his blog. The title gained 0.14% to 109.40 dollars.

Finally, Boeing could react because the World Trade Organization asks Brussels to halt "without delay" to the subsidies paid to Airbus. Boeing sees this decision as "a great legal victory, the European union will be Apel.les action leaves 0.51% to 62.46 dollars.

At issue: a doubt on the prospects of the sector which has strengthened since China announced placing steel in his sights. According to a statement from the website of the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday, the country will give tax rebates on exports of several products including steel and nonferrous metals, and that from 15 July. China justifies this decision by the fear of overcapacity in the sector when the economy goes again on the basis of a policy of credit support.China, world's largest producer, saw its production continues to increase by 20.7% in May year on year to 56.1 million tonnes.

The government, which wants to avoid "blind investment" and too many expansion projects, puts an end to these tax rebates that block trade relations with many countries. EU and U.S. impose a particular anti-dumping tax to restore competition they feel more loyal to several Chinese steel products.

Approaching the summit of the G20, this news is seen by observers as a new important gesture by the Chinese authorities, after announcing an easing of the exchange rate of the yuan.

Arc elorMittal sees a slowdown in demand

Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal was one point on the demand in the sector.According to the world's number one steel company, the apparent demand and actual demand for steel should remain positive in the second half of the year, will face even slower during this period. "European consumers are in a waiting phase. At the same time, stocks are still low, "said Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of the group. The latter believes that the problem is the same in the United States.

According to Lakshmi Mittal, the economic situation remains bleak. "Housing is still visibly weak. The car is still robust. The market for capital goods began to improve and engineering improves. However, the steel industry should return to its pre-crisis level until 2012.

This view was confirmed on Monday spoke Federation World Steel Association (WSA) who believes that "if China, South Korea and Turkey have increased their production in May compared to 2007, the United States, Italy , Spain and Japan have not yet regained their pre-crisis level. " The WSA also notes that if demand is expected, stocks, themselves, continue to rise: Global steel production rose by 29.1% in May to 124 million tons, exceeding by nearly 10% of its levels before the crisis.

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Eiffarie owned by Eiffage and Australia's Macquarie have after the operation 95% of APRR. The subsidiary also plans to launch a buyout offer, that is to say that APRR would no longer be quoted on the Stock Exchange (right when the majority shareholder holds more than 95%).A project must receive the blessing of the AMF to be realized.

If this is implemented, and upon its conclusion, it remains on the securities market, these shares would then be a squeeze, which will be performed at the same price of 54.16 euros per share: 84 cents per share are restated as it is the amount of the dividend qu'Eiffarie decided to pay shareholders of APRR June 30 next.

The transaction is expected to close by the June 24 APRR listed on compartment A of Euronext, flies too, from 7.65% to 54.75 euros.

Eiffage and Macquarie have finally heard

The two shareholders of Eiffarie seemed irreconcilable. On this issue, in fact, Eiffage wanted to make a capital increase of 400 million euros in APRR, here just one year.One way to avoid a deterioration of its financial rating would increase the costs of refinancing. Macquarie's refusal earlier this year.

Use markets? The CEO of Eiffage, in turn, rejects the idea. The stock market conditions are too uncertain. Another option would be to buy back its shares in Eiffarie. But Macquarie had not responded.

Investors enthusiastic

"The acquisition of the balance of APRR is positive news for Eiffage.The group can calmly deal to refinance Eiffarie 2013, "commented analyst Aurel BCG, for whom this would be" accretive by approximately 3% based on Eiffage tax integration we estimate that approximately 70 million euros.

Indeed, Eiffage will benefit from the tax integration: from 1 January 2011, interest paid on debt to acquire Eiffarie * – 3.77 billion – will be deducted from the tax base APRR, say the strategists Natixis Securities. In addition, the tax losses generated by the interest paid on this debt between 2006 and 2010 will be tax deductible APRR, they said. For them, the economy reached 314 million euros. APRR, in fact, will not pay tax according to their estimates.

* Eiffarie, had been chosen by the state in late 2005 during the privatization of Autoroutes Paris Rhin Rhone (APRR).

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The idea had been raised by the White House. Several members of Congress while announcing their desire to put pressure on BP to put it in receivership on payment of its dividend in order to ensure compensation for victims of the disaster, compared to a "September 11th green" by Barack Obama.

According to the White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs, is already preparing the risposta in the Oval Office. Barack Obama will "be forced either to reach an agreement with BP to withdraw their control of the process of claims and entrusted to an independent structure, so that people who have been harmed to obtain the money they is due, "said the spokesman. The administration is based on the polluter pays law in force in the United States, which requires BP to pay the costs of plugging the leak of oil, cleaning the polluted coastline and compensation for victims.Traveling in Pensacola Beach, Florida, Bush assured the residents affected by the oil spill that would "whatever it takes, as long as it takes to be sure that BP is paying for the damage that it has caused.

An oration

President Barack Obama has formally addressed his countrymen on Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. (2:00 am, Paris time). He will be speaking from the Oval Office of the White House, space reserved for the most serious crises and whom he'd never used a speech to the nation.

A senior, Bush will announce the appointment of a person responsible for restoring long-term disaster areas by the oil spill that pollutes the Gulf of Mexico. The "czar" as the American press dubbed the mission will be to "restore the Gulf of Mexico.Not to where it was the day when the accident occurred. But to restore it to where it was years ago: to increase the life and vitality of the species, wildlife and natural beauty that characterizes the Gulf of Mexico, "said Robert Gibbs.

Barack Obama will set out above "the need to reduce our dependence vis-a-vis oil and fossil fuels. He will also discuss the "changes necessary for such a disaster never happens again more. According to an anonymous source, the U.S. president will "present the measures taken to protect those who suffer financially from this disaster, especially during the process of compensation."

"The tragedy was avoidable

Under pressure, BP must also face competition that dares to push it."I am convinced that the independent investigation will show that this tragedy was preventable," and called John Watson, head of oil company Chevron to members of the Committee on Energy and Commerce House of Representatives. The explosion and the sinking of the platform in late April Deepwater Horizon "show once again that all companies must work under the same strict safety and reliability. It is obvious that not following these rules has serious consequences, "he added.

"It is imperative that an investigation expert, impartial and comprehensive investigation takes place, because this incident represents a serious breach of standards relating to offshore drilling, for his part stressed the boss of ExxonMobil, Rex Tillerson .

In addition to the Chevron boss and ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Shell were present. Facing them, Lamar McKay attempted to defend his group."I want to make things clear: BP will know no rest until the wells will not be under control and that we do not understand what happened," he said.

Ficth puts his two cents

BP has several weeks to manage its bad reputation. The group would also relies on advisers to help him. The efforts required will be considerable, especially since the rating agency Fitch has come to contribute to the debate on Tuesday, lowering the notches of six notes of the British major. The latter is now BBB AA cons. Fitch maintains it under "surveillance implications". The rating agency is particularly concerned that BP may be forced by U.S. authorities to place large sums into accounts in receivership.This is the first time that the note of BP is lowered several notches by the three leading rating agencies worldwide and it falls below the AA.

At the London Stock Exchange, BP shares ended the session on a further drop of 3.78% to 342 pence while the FTSE close up on 0.30%. In New York, the action is able to earn 2.18% to 31.31 dollars during the session on a market up 1.22%.

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No disagreement between Merkel and Sarkozy

Despite these blunders, the spokesman for Angela Merkel was quick to point out that there was no disagreement between the two governments.

Earlier this week, Nicolas Sarkozy had expressed doubts about the austerity plan of Germany. "If we add to the austerity of austerity, we will go into recession." France hoped that the German recovery stronger domestic demand to balance the trade balance of the euro area.

The two leaders have postponed this meeting to June 14, three days before the European Council summit to be held in Brussels.

The stock market had reacted badly to the announcement of the cancellation of the meeting. The CAC 40 had lost more than 1% at closing."Although both parties argue for scheduling reasons, they will not prevent financial markets interpret this delay as the collapse in the open non-functioning of the Franco-German one hand and a state of panic among the other European states, analysis Nicolas Bouzou, economist at Aster.

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The first defending Jerome Kerviel. The tenor of 60 years is known for his extensive knowledge of procedures. The portrayals of him by his colleagues suggest a punctilious lawyer, knowing by heart the workings of criminal law and able to read three times on his client's case to find the tiniest flaw.It is these obsessions that allow it to release in 1983 of gang members, including some Public Enemy, thanks to the discovery of a possible problem of not respected by the judge. The technical file Kerviel suits him: the lawyer had already sifted through piles of documents sent by Societe Generale and promises to update all the contradictions legal exonerate his client.

His international reputation, and ability to move from organized crime to politics, also explains the crowds at trial. Olivier Metzner was all big business in recent years: he has defended and obtained the release of Dominique de Villepin in the Clearstream case. He advises Continental in the Concorde trial.It also comes alongside the former dictator Manuel Noriega of Panama, the College of Physicians in its dispute with Dr. Stephane Delajoux, or alongside Françoise Bettencourt, daughter of the owner of L'Oreal.

"Lawyers for Kerviel serve us"

For Jean Veil, 62, Olivier Metzner mania of always wanting to delve deeper into the details of files, will play against him. Those who agreed to defend Societe Generale believes in an interview to Businessweek, "lawyers for Kerviel make us a great service. They ask questions that investigators did not pursue answers and contradict the thesis of Kerviel.

Olivier Metzner will be challenged as Jean Veil is also run in the pursuit of major trials. In his counter, the defense Dominique Strauss-Kahn in affair Mnef and the Credit Lyonnais deal with Bernard Tapie.Jean Veil is known for attracting a clientele but also many VIPs of CAC 40 companies, including Total and BNP Paribas. Jacques Chirac also benefits from advice through political and financial affairs.

This work is crazy lead two battles: the current defense of Guillaume Hannezo, former CFO of Vivendi-Universal, and co-accused Jean-Marie Messier and that of Societe Generale. He promised to defend the bank's reputation, harmed, he said, by the former trader.

The confrontation between the two men promised great moments. The planning of the trial announces first hearing Tuesday from 13.30. The battle that will engage the two tenors of the Paris bar 25 to last until Friday morning.No seat should remain free for long.

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