Rollaway odd jobs "black" companies "forget" to declare certain benefits … The small and big tricks to earn more without paying taxes or social security in developed countries are becoming increasingly common thanks to crisis. In escaping the state controls, individuals like firms engage in what economists call the informal economy, or underground.

"Because of the economic crisis, the shadow economy in 2010 will have increased in developed countries, after rising in 2009, wrote in a recent study by Friedrich Schneider, Austrian economist and specialist in the informal economy. According to his calculations, the share of the unofficial economy in the gross domestic product (GDP) in OECD countries rose by 13.3% in 2008 to 14% in 2010.In France, this ratio increased from 11.1% to 11.7%.

The increase may seem small, but it puts an end to the downward trend going back to the late 1990s. The Baltic and Mediterranean European countries experiencing the highest ratios. The shadow economy represents 25% of GDP in Greece and around 40% in Latvia and Estonia, as the work of Schneider. So many countries where the crisis hit harder than elsewhere.

To compensate for loss of income

Job losses, layoffs … revenue base with the crisis. "Many people try to compensate for their declining revenues through greater participation in informal transactions," says Friedrich Schneider.Among the top sectors fueling the underground economy, are the building trades and crafts, including the restoration, "he observes.

The underground economy is not always a bad thing. "I think the increase in informal activities during a crisis can avoid a recession even greater," said Friedrich Schneider. "Individuals and businesses earn more money, they can spend in the formal economy."

Fraud Investigations

In the Directorate of Legislation, recovery and service (Dirr), we measure the effects of the crisis on French companies thanks to anti-fraud investigations conducted in 2009. "A society that has problems is more likely to be in violation," said executive vice president of control, Jean-Michel Guerra.

To avoid bloodshed, but the controllers have been instructed to be conciliatory. The time granted in 2009 to companies in trouble when adjustments on previous years, usually stable, jumped 58%. Still, delinquencies have increased during the recovery of a half point, to 1.45%, from 12.5 billion euros.

One last figure: last year, the number of minutes prepared for working illegally jumped 27%, in part, it is true, thanks to control operations more focused and more frequent. The crisis should be felt in the figures of the anti-fraud encopre for several years. The controls on the activities of companies are indeed made for two to three years thereafter.

The chief executive of Publicis can be satisfied. The third group global advertising has emerged in the second quarter of fiscal 2010 to grow its turnover by 7.1% (in organic). A much stronger dynamism during the first three months of the year (revenues had increased by 3.1%).

Such performance allows Maurice Levy to display his full confidence for the full year 2010: "I am confident that Publicis will outperform the market in terms of growth and the level of last year margin will be floor, "he said, thus raising its objectives. In other words, the turnover of Publicis will rise by more than 3.5% organic growth over the twelve month period according to the latest forecast of ZenithOptimedia, the global ad investment is expected to grow by 3.5% ( target revised upwards twice). And his margin will be above 15%.

In the first half already, organic growth amounted to 5.3% to 2.538 billion euros, its operating margin to 14.5% and net income jumped résutlat 27.5% over the same period 2009, to 213 million euros.

The digital and emerging line of sight

"This growth is the result of a strategy that produces effects positifis and regular," says the boss, first "because it grows with our customers, we grow with them and other customers are attracted by the followed by Publicis, and also because the group has put its weapons into the digital world. "Digital is our priority and this activity, one that grows the most, permeate the entire group," he decrypts, including content that become paying on the Internet and the development of tablets in general.

And also because the band has pushed themselves pawns in emerging countries, where "the dynamism should continue also in 2011 and 2012". The first half of 2010 in any case, the turnover generated Publicis Asia Pacific grew 6% to 286 million euros and 10.8% in Latin America.

In the U.S., it reached 1.258 billion euros (+6.6%) thanks to a favorable currency effect, and the importance of the contribution of health activities and digital activities, which represent 42.5% of income from this region.

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Aeroports de Paris (ADP) plans to renovate the terminal at Roissy and Orly airports and to begin to improve the quality of service. The group, which manages the airports of Roissy Charles de Gaulle, Orly and Le Bourget, has indeed signed on Monday the new terms of economic regulation (CRE) with the State for 2011-2015. This includes an investment program of nearly 1.8 billion euros "primarily oriented towards improving customer satisfaction, the operational efficiency and optimization of existing capacity" according to the contract.

At Roissy, ADP plans to completely renovate the terminal 2B to $ 90 million over the next five years to operate the satellite terminal 2E S4 in the third quarter of 2012. The renovation of a satellite terminal should also continue.

The group also wants to complete the connection between terminals 2A and 2C in the second quarter of 2012 and the terminal 2F adapt to accommodate a full traffic to and from the Schengen area. At Orly, the halls 3 and 4 should also be reconfigured by 2015.

Measuring the satisfaction of passengers

ADP focuses on "quality of service and improved customer satisfaction." Ten indicators are established to assess the satisfaction of passengers, including cleanliness, signage and information, but also the availability of equipment in the terminals.

Finally, EPA sets a maximum annual increase of airport charges at 1.38% above inflation.

The group has also confirmed a reduction of 2% per annum of its workforce between 2011 and 2015.

Around 14:30, as the EPA has one of the finest performances of the CAC 40: it rose from 4.40% to 56.47 euros on a market down by 0.39%.

Spain has raised Thursday about three billion euros of fresh money in bonds and 15 years, allaying fears of the markets on its ability to find funds to repay a debt. Demand for the securities has been over two and a half times greater than supply, a sign of great success. The average interest rate of bonds stood at 5.116% during the operation faxless cash advances. The coupon will be finally served 4.65%, a high price without being dramatic. In April, the average rate was 4.43% for bonds of the same type. After this successful auction, the yield difference between bonds and ten-year Spanish and German Bund reference narrowed. The success of the operation also supported the course of the euro.

The U.S. stock markets opened around the balance on Friday. LLE Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell back in effect respectively from 0.07% to 1069 points and 0.11% to 2173 points. The Dow Jones, it is at equilibrium aprfait 10,139 points.

A few days before the opening of the ball half-year results, investors play the card of caution. Within the Dow, the ball will begin, starting Monday with numbers from Alcoa.

On Thursday, the NYSE has lined up a third session. The Dow Jones gained 1.20% 10,138.99 points and the Nasdaq 0.74% to 2175.40 points.

In particular, investors welcomed the drop in unemployment last week. Registrations fell to their lowest level since early May, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. A relief after the disappointment on the monthly figures of employment.Other good news, the International Monetary Fund has excluded the possibility of a new global recession, despite the turbulence on the financial sector by a less stable. He even raised its growth forecast for 2010 to 4.6% against 4.2% estimated in April.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro was weakening against the dollar after a flight the day before. The euro hit a high for two months and passed a symbolic milestone strong, exceeding the $ 1.27 100% free credit score. The European currency, benefiting from renewed optimism over the health of banks on the old continent.

Today, U.S. investors expect stocks to wholesalers for the month of May

On the side of values, the title of Britain's BP, quoted in London and on Wall Street is particularly rowdy: -1.66% to 33.2 follar.The U.S. government Thursday gave the company 24 hours to discuss her new device designed to contain the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Always on the side of values, the U.S. producer of industrial gases Air Products announced Thursday it increased its bid for rival Airgas, whose level was deemed insufficient by its target. The group is now offering 63.50 dollars per share in cash, instead of $ 60 proposed in February, a total of some 5.3 billion dollars.

Note also the media giant Disney (0.57% to 33.5 U.S. dollars) have reached an agreement in principle to sell the film studio Miramax in a consortium including the fund Colony Capital, said Thursday night the Los Angeles Times, referring to a transaction of approximately $ 650 million.

Boeing (+0.17% to 64.84 dollars) has submitted its bid for ravitalleurs.EADS has filed its case yesterday.

Was expected. While economic growth in the Eurogroup countries remains low, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rate Thursday at 1%, its lowest level for the 14th consecutive month.

Eurozone growth moderate and uneven in 2010

This choice is further agreed that European fears about debt had reappeared in recent weeks. "A change of course is not expected until at least the first half of 2011. As long as fiscal policy is restrictive and low growth, monetary policy needs to be expansionary so accommodating, "said Nicolas Bouzou, economist and founder of Aster. He added: "Higher interest rates would be justified if the growth in the euro area was between 2% and 2.5%. It is still far away. "

A trend confirmed by the ECB president himself Thursday during a news conference. It forecasts economic growth still modest and uneven in the euro zone in 2010.

Previously, the Bank of England had done the same, maintaining its rate at 0.5%.

The Fed could raise rates before the end of the year

The situation in the United States could change, according to Nicolas Bouzou. "The Fed is expected to increase by 50 basis points more than its interest rates before the end of the year." Therefore, the ECB does she not have him engage the right? "No, because the situation is different overseas. While the job market is still fragile but current levels of growth in the U.S. require a bit of back interest rates to prevent inflation from too much to leave again the rise, "he says.He considers, however, that higher interest rates the Fed would be beneficial for Europe. "It would accentuate the depreciation of the euro and thus encourage European exports," says the economist.

Your money banks interested again. The financial crisis, coupled with new regulations "gave all the players in the taste of traditional trades, collection of savings and lending, far from the glitz and the pitfalls of corporate finance and investment .

Against this backdrop of growing competition that the group-BPCE about 20% of retail banking in France-muscle ambitions. "We want to win market share," insists Olivier Klein, CEO of commercial banking and insurance BPCE since 1 April.

For the first time, in fact, the group born of the merger of People's banks and savings banks in 2009 was appointed a pilot common to both networks. But out of the question specialize signs, Savings on individuals and Banques Populaires on SMEs and professionals.

"These are two strong brands that do not say the same thing. The client does not confuse them and he chooses, "says Olivier Klein. And he concluded: "The 20 Banques Populaires and Caisses d'Epargne 17 are competing with each other on their own territory. The synergies are generated upstream in the production subsidiaries of which are shared in information systems or purchasing, for example. "Conquest through major campaigns such as that recently launched on the Squirrel young.

Reflecting on times

However, it is to protect margins. "We have no strategy to lower mortgage rates or increase deposit rates in order to take market share.We are already very competitive, "says the former head of the Caisse d'Epargne Rhône-Alpes, relativize:" The rates are not determinative paydayloans. Customers want especially well taken care of them. "

For him, in fact, "the revolution is accelerating customer" with individuals and other professionals who want butter, eat it, too … and the smile of the banker.

Mesh agencies, remote access and advisor, the banks must offer everything. Hence, a meticulous adaptation BPCE the group boasts of having initiated all directions. "Some Savings reflected at their hand on schedule to deliver on time can make appointments later to better serve the needs of large cities," reports Olivier Klein.Meanwhile, "we launch all channels of distribution: the bank on mobile, ready to Savings, will be in September at the Banques Populaires. It adds "a lot of work ergonomics to facilitate online purchases, such as life insurance contracts. Some banks have created BPCE equivalent of bank branches 100% online. At the same time, the computer must be reviewed to allow salespeople to track customers realize that their operations remotely. All these facilities where other signs seem more advanced. Decentralization own mutual groups do not promote rapid implementations.

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While industrial countries emerging from crisis levels weighted with historically high public debt, emerging markets display patterns much healthier. Their good resistance during the recession of 2009 and an underlying trend towards greater stability has attracted the interest of investors.

"We see a positive snowball effect on emerging market debt: a dozen countries have been under positive outlook by rating agencies, which herald a recovery of notes, analytical Anne-Sophie Girault, a specialist in this Market Aviva Investors. Moody's, Standard & Poor's and others see a positive view of the low debt ratio of developing countries, which averages less than 40% of gross domestic product. Twice as less developed countries.

The emerging markets have also gained credibility in the markets."They have improved their fundamentals, the local central banks are becoming more independent, inflation is under control and steering of public finances is good," Frank J. Nicolas, Natixis AM. And the economic outlook is much better than in Europe, for example.

Result: institutional investors have been interested for nearly ten months to market, providing stability. They take long positions. So far, only hedge funds were present in the short term, making the market very volatile. Today, the market is 360 billion of debt issued in dollars and 1.4 trillion dollars of debt issued in local currency.

Record demand

In this context, the demand for emerging market debt from the investment fund has beaten all records in the first half, according to the calculations of Aviva.At $ 31 billion, it almost reaches the levels of previous years in just five months.

Emerging now are they safe? "These are pseudo-safe investments," says Franck Nicolas. "Beware of Loved tobacco." Clearly, the emerging countries are always a risk of sudden reversal of the situation. And if their fundamentals, growth, inflation, debt-positive, "markets, very nervous now, can still cause a contagion" of the debt crisis in emerging countries, recognizes Anne-Sophie Girault.

The latest employment figures have clearly welcomed the Secretary of State for Trade, Herve Novelli. In its latest publication on the subject, INSEE reported a sharp increase in the number of jobs created in the sectors of hotels and restaurants since the introduction of VAT at 5.5% 1 July 2009. Indeed it is 22,900 jobs were created last year, says the Institute.

Going a little faster than the music, the Secretary of State for Trade, Herve Novelli, was once praised as "the goal set by the government, 20,000 new jobs in two years is, in less than one year, not only met but exceeded " payday loan companies. A statement not entirely accurate.

For the future contract signed last July it clear that the restaurants have pledged to create 20,000 jobs in two years, beyond the 15,000 jobs a year usually created by the sector. By creating 22,900 jobs since the fall of VAT, the restaurateurs have established that 7,900 additional. They are thus far have exceeded one year the target set by the government in terms of jobs. But they still have a year to catch up.

The Airbus A380 will be the star of the Berlin Airshow (ILA) which opens its doors next Tuesday. On June 8, the European manufacturer will deliver on the site of an A380 to Emirates lounge, the tenth to enter service in the fleet of the airline of Dubai. It will enter service between Dubai and London from 15 June. This is the thirtieth delivered by Airbus A380 in October 2007 to Singapore Airlines, the launch company.

The other highlight of the show should be for Airbus's announcement of a new Emirates A380 order with ten aircraft and farm options (at least a dozen well). Emirates is already the largest A380 customer with 58 orders. On May 13 at its conference statement, the company officials did not hide that, very pleased with the performance of large aircraft, they envisioned a new order.Asked Airbus declined comment.

Since its commissioning in October 2007 between Paris and Singapore by Singapore Airlines, the A380 has carried 5.5 million passengers to 18 destinations and made 14,000 flights. Airbus calculates that if these flights were made with the planes of the previous generation, they would have released into the atmosphere 620,000 tons of CO2.