Rollaway odd jobs "black" companies "forget" to declare certain benefits … The small and big tricks to earn more without paying taxes or social security in developed countries are becoming increasingly common thanks to crisis. In escaping the state controls, individuals like firms engage in what economists call the informal economy, or underground.

"Because of the economic crisis, the shadow economy in 2010 will have increased in developed countries, after rising in 2009, wrote in a recent study by Friedrich Schneider, Austrian economist and specialist in the informal economy. According to his calculations, the share of the unofficial economy in the gross domestic product (GDP) in OECD countries rose by 13.3% in 2008 to 14% in 2010.In France, this ratio increased from 11.1% to 11.7%.

The increase may seem small, but it puts an end to the downward trend going back to the late 1990s. The Baltic and Mediterranean European countries experiencing the highest ratios. The shadow economy represents 25% of GDP in Greece and around 40% in Latvia and Estonia, as the work of Schneider. So many countries where the crisis hit harder than elsewhere.

To compensate for loss of income

Job losses, layoffs … revenue base with the crisis. "Many people try to compensate for their declining revenues through greater participation in informal transactions," says Friedrich Schneider.Among the top sectors fueling the underground economy, are the building trades and crafts, including the restoration, "he observes.

The underground economy is not always a bad thing. "I think the increase in informal activities during a crisis can avoid a recession even greater," said Friedrich Schneider. "Individuals and businesses earn more money, they can spend in the formal economy."

Fraud Investigations

In the Directorate of Legislation, recovery and service (Dirr), we measure the effects of the crisis on French companies thanks to anti-fraud investigations conducted in 2009. "A society that has problems is more likely to be in violation," said executive vice president of control, Jean-Michel Guerra.

To avoid bloodshed, but the controllers have been instructed to be conciliatory. The time granted in 2009 to companies in trouble when adjustments on previous years, usually stable, jumped 58%. Still, delinquencies have increased during the recovery of a half point, to 1.45%, from 12.5 billion euros.

One last figure: last year, the number of minutes prepared for working illegally jumped 27%, in part, it is true, thanks to control operations more focused and more frequent. The crisis should be felt in the figures of the anti-fraud encopre for several years. The controls on the activities of companies are indeed made for two to three years thereafter.

Reduce your deficit or it will cost you! The warning has been launched by the most influential rating agencies, Standard & Poor's, the world's largest economy, the United States. The head of state in the notation "S & P, John Chambers, Thursday launched a thinly veiled threat to the U.S. Congress for rejecting measures to reduce the deficit, then the notes of the United States, the prestigious" Triple A "could be questioned.

The words of John Chambers, who presides over the rating of 118 countries, have weight. When Standard & Poor's lowers a note means that the state has more chance of bad repay its debts. The investor who buys debt of this state in the form of bonds, then will demand higher interest rates corresponding to the greatest risk. Ultimately, this greatly increases the cost of debt management for the country.

Rigor required

While the return approach, the warnings from rating agencies are increasing. The moment is critical: it is between September and December that states buckle their budgets for the coming year. France, recently lectured by the rating agency Moody's, in a report on the countries rated, has already introduced measures of rigor.

In the "Triple A", London is also in the crosshairs of Standard & Poor's. The notes of the United Kingdom is already "on negative watch" last step before a possible degradation. Despite an initial austerity plan in place before the summer, the government of James Cameron should show "a little more determination to fight against the deficit" in the next budget review in October, said John Chambers faxless payday advance .

How the states will fail

The austerity measures already submitted or planned do not really reassure the markets. In a note titled "Do not ask if the states will fail, but rather how," the U.S. bank Morgan Stanley, is sounding the alarm. Developed countries already burdened by debt levels as they can not take all their commitments, warns the author of the note, Arnaud Mares.

Pensioners, benefit recipients or taxpayers will be affected by the plans of rigor. "It would be dangerously optimistic to believe that in this context, investors will remain forever protected against loss of income that will affect everyone," said Arnaud Mares.

According to this former analyst at Moody's, the states will not officially bankrupt. They rather use "the financial oppression."Specifically, holders of government bonds will be subject to interest rates artificially low or downright negative, ie less than inflation.

Scoring Criteria

To determine a rating, a rating agency monitors both the debt level and growth of the country. If the debt is high and growth is weak, the state will have more difficulty in meeting its commitments vis-à-vis investors. On the one hand because the burden of repayments will weigh too large a share in its budget. On the other hand, because it may raise less taxes in times of prosperity, income taxes depending on the health of businesses and households.

Everything is improving at L'Oreal. The activity is accelerating in its four divisions – professional products, consumer, luxury, and active cosmetics – and in all regions of the world. Operating income rose twice as fast as the turnover and can find a record level of margin, and net profit falls sharply increase.

In detail, while turnover rose 6.3% to 9.67 billion euros in the first half of 2010 – a 13% growth in the Asia-Pacific – the Operating profit climbed 21.4% over the first six months of 2009, to 1.67 billion euros. The operating margin amounted to 17.3% as well. This is well beyond what the consensus expected, with a margin of 15.4% referred. And allowing it to regain its peak level reached in the first half of 2008.In the public sector, the margin rises to 20.4% while in the luxury, it is 28%.

In this context, the net profit of L'Oreal rises 21.2% to 1.316 billion euros. Per share, net income amounted to 2.39 euros, an increase of 15.3%.

Note also that the net debt stood at 1.67 billion euros at June 30, 2010, and is thus reduced from 300 million euros compared to late 2009.The debt ratio amounted to 11.7% of equity.

DG confident

Commenting on these figures, Jean-Paul Agon, CEO of L'Oreal, welcomes the group's strategic choice: "focus on innovations with high value added and affordable price, expansion into new product categories, accelerating the international expansion and investment in proactive ways advertising and promotion and research. "

"These findings fall within the virtuous spiral of growth of the group and confirm the vitality of the business model L'Oreal," he added.

A stock market as attractive

The L'Oréal closed Wednesday at 75.77 euros on the Paris Stock Exchange, posting a decline of 2.9% since the beginning of the year, while the index diversified European consumer goods ahead of 10 5% over the period.At this price level, the Group's market capitalization stood at 45.2 billion euros.

The value of trades on valuation multiples of about 17.5 times its earnings estimates by analysts for 2011, well below the average for the last five years (24.5 times) but considerably higher than the 14.7 overall average in the sector. The chifrfes indicating that L'Oreal shares are not expensive in terms of its performance. Natixis Securities aims, for example 97 euros for a potential increase in value by 28%.

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Wage discrimination between men and women has been the subject of numerous reports. That between heterosexuals and homosexuals had never been studied. Until today. Two economists from the University of Evry have considered this matter and found a gap of 6.5% on average in the private sector and 5.5% year on public Liberation reported Saturday. A result based on a sample of 904 cases.

This difference was found "all things being equal", the newspaper said, that is to say, qualifications and duties equal, in businesses of similar size, etc.. "After dismissing all the biases that could distort the results, we arrive at a pay gap is said unexplained", explains Thierry Laurent, co-authored the study with Ferhat Mihoubi. Only males are affected by this discrimination. The lesbians do not suffer any apparent loss of wages "unexplained".

This discrimination does not affect all gays with the same force. The less educated and the young could be less discriminated against, while the widening gap with the qualifications and experience. As a percentage of the "visibility" of an employee within the company, analyze the two economists. The young staff are more secure, with little "visible" for competitive examination.

"Marriage premium"

The results of the study are close to the observed differences in wages abroad, but it must include "marriage premium" observed in France. A married man will win because on average 4% more than a single. Homosexuals can not have access to marriage, they are doubly penalized.In the U.S., according to a study published in October 2007 and based on the study of 91,000 cases, a gay employee earns an average 23% less than heterosexual married counterparts.

In France, these wage differentials are explained, the two authors argue, by homophobia. "A CSA poll conducted in March 2009, said Liberation, revealed that 28% of private sector employees do not feel" very comfortable "with the fact that their colleague is gay.

Investors should react positively Wednesday morning the results of Societe Generale, published before the opening, and that are much better than expected. Monday, BNP Paribas and HSBC had already published accounts reassuring and had restored confidence to investors worldwide.

Tuesday, ACC 40a consolidated amid stalled on Wall Street. The index closed slightly down from 0.12% to 3747.51 points, close to 3750 points. On Wednesday, the index future pointing down on the CAC 40, which is expected to decline from 0.31% to 3734 points in the opening gong.

In Asia, Tokyo reclusive sharply while export values are still penalized by one yen rise against the U.S. dollar.

On Wednesday, the macroeconomic news might still punctuate the markets.In the euro area, 10 hours, attention is paid to the services PMI for July and composite (2nd estimate) and above 11 hours, on retail sales in June

Overseas, the ADP employment figures in the private sector in July will be well attended in the financial world, at 14.30. Then at 16 hours, the ISM index of activity in services should lead the market. Finally, at 16:30, the traditional weekly crude oil stocks are known. All these figures of importance, so that on Tuesday, the statistics on consumer spending and incomes of households were poorer than expected.

Société Générale and Axa have published

As for values, investors have been informed by stock-half-year results of Societe Generale. Net income was more than tripled to 1.084 billion euros in the second quarter.Economists expected a doubling. Moreover, its Greek subsidiary Geniki announced a widening its net loss in the first half, the economic difficulties the country promoting the proliferation of bad loans.

Axa has posted a net profit in the first half down 29% to 944 million euros. It mieuw than expected and operating income, which excludes special items, spring, him, down 3%.

Suez Environment, a specialist in water management and waste, noted Wednesday its growth forecast for the full year 2010, after posting interim results up sharply.Jean-Louis Chaussade, CEO of number two French water treatment and industrial waste, says his group's performance in the first half.

Bic Sopra and Iliad also publish pre-market.

Maurel & Prom: 68% of first half sales

Energy. Departments of Ecology and Economy announced Tuesday that the government planned to increase to 15 August electricity rates by 3% on average for households and 4% to 5.5% for businesses.

Maurel & Prom said on Tuesday sales up 68% in the first half of 2010, helped by the rise in production fields in Gabon and in particular the development of production fields and Omgw OMBG . Note that the oil companies are particularly sought after in recent sessions.The oil was indeed installed comfortably beyond 80 dollars.

Vilmorin published Tuesday a consolidated turnover in 2009-2010 increased by 6.2%, supported by his vegetable business. The fourth seed has confirmed global forecast fiscal year 2009-2010 ended June 30, "a good performance of its margins," despite the increased "significantly" from its investment in research.

Teleperformance announced Tuesday for the first half rose 3.9% in sales on a reported basis, down to a 2.6% decline in comparable, indicating that the positive impact of its restructuring plan on the second play part of the year.

Yoplait whets the appetite. The investment fund PAI Partners, the owner since June 2002 half of the capital, examines three hypotheses for the future of the world's second largest fresh dairy products, which reported last year a turnover of 891 million euros and an operating profit of 120 million. With virtually no debt, Yoplait is valued 1.3 billion euros. With several investment banks, PAI is considering a recapitalization of Yoplait, for acquisitions and a divestiture of its stake. No decision has yet been taken at this stage, given the complexity of the case.

Sodiaal launched the Yoplait brand in 1965. In 2002, the dairy cooperative (Candia, Rich Mountain), through a serious crisis, had to sell 50% stake in its branch yoghurts and PAI commit to leave the choice of leaders. Today in better health, she would regain control.Not sure it is able to spend as much cash as the only means of payment accepted by PAI. Especially as it finalizes the acquisition of Entremont. "The conditions for resumption Entremont n'obéreront not our ability to maneuver on Yoplait, Le Figaro said in February its director general, Claude Sendowski. Sodiaal has the clear desire not to leave the ultra-fresh. "

Although the maintenance of capital Sodiaal Yoplait seems acquired its takeover is not. Therefore, the output of PAI can be done if Sodiaal agrees to let his future co-shareholder control of management of Yoplait, owned by PAI contract. The investment funds and Sodiall long-standing opposition to a crucial point: IBP transfer this control along with its 50%? "The purchaser will have management control, said a potential buyer.No one will pay a high price for simply looking out the window. If this had been resolved, the assignment would be curly for two years … "

Lactalis ambush

To break the impasse, he would have agreed to cede Sodiaal stake in Yoplait. Lactalis cheese group (President, Galbani) has formed a joint venture with Nestle yoghurts, has never hidden his interest in the brand. Funds, Permira and BC Partners as it prepares the sale of Picard might be interested. The U.S. company General Mills, the largest franchisee of Yoplait for thirty years, would look into the matter. Yoplait has developed both through subsidiaries and franchise agreements. "Yoplait is the largest in the United States in France," says one at General Mills.

Pending a change in the capital, PAI and Sodiaal could agree on other tracks.Yoplait, which completed its debt, could start to borrow to buy back a portion of its capital. The company considers a prey, could also become predatory, and engage in acquisitions, for example by acquiring franchisees in emerging countries. In March 2009, Yoplait has repurchased 68.6 million shares of EUR (49%) of British Dairy Crest, in their joint venture founded in 1991, which sells in Britain and Yop Little tricksters.

Meanwhile measure the effects of the broad financial reform approved by Congress, the giants of Wall Street continued their slow recovery. Citigroup, which had managed to exit the first quarter of 2010 after losing a total of $ 29 billion between 2008 and 2009, has confirmed his return to profits between March and June The third U.S. lender has reported net earnings of $ 2.7 billion, down 37% over a year. For its part, Bank of America, the first U.S. retail bank, posted net income of $ 3.1 billion, a slight decrease of 4%. The day before, JPMorgan had announced a profit of 4.8 billion, up 76%.

If the performance of these three giants of Wall Street have exceeded the expectations of financial analysts, they are far from convincing.The banks, in effect, save their profits fall in provisions for doubtful debts, which remain however very high levels. At Citigroup, they have a charge of $ 6.7 billion, the lowest in almost three years. For Bank of America, the drain $ 8.1 billion against $ 9.8 billion in the first quarter and still $ 16.4 billion a year ago pay day loan lenders.

Less capital raising

More than three years after the start of the crisis in the housing, the improvement of conditions in the shy USA relieves borrowers. But business remains sluggish, as evidenced by the decrease in revenues of large banks: – 33% for Citigroup – 18% for Bank of America – 7% for JPMorgan. The great challenge for these players is to reach boost their sales."It will be several more quarters to see a sustainable activity," warns Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Bank of America.

Last year, the Wall Street banks had managed to offset the gloom with an exceptional year in the investment bank, with capital raising records. Alas, this windfall is gone and instead the second quarter under the sign of the crisis of European sovereign countries was characterized by high volatility and lower risk appetite. This scenario weighs on commissions and revenue from emissions trading.

Spain has raised Thursday about three billion euros of fresh money in bonds and 15 years, allaying fears of the markets on its ability to find funds to repay a debt. Demand for the securities has been over two and a half times greater than supply, a sign of great success. The average interest rate of bonds stood at 5.116% during the operation faxless cash advances. The coupon will be finally served 4.65%, a high price without being dramatic. In April, the average rate was 4.43% for bonds of the same type. After this successful auction, the yield difference between bonds and ten-year Spanish and German Bund reference narrowed. The success of the operation also supported the course of the euro.

Teleperformance, a leading global call center companies, which employs 7,400 people in France, announced Thursday a major restructuring plan. The group will eliminate 830 positions in the hexagon, from 22 to 14 sites, a workforce reduction of approximately 15%.

The group will remove the center of Marseilles (25 posts), Pantin (149), Rennes (194) and Tours (51). In four cities, where two centers exist, they will be merged, with the result at Le Mans 41 positions eliminated, 169 Lyons, 71 and 61 in Orleans in Toulouse. Finally, the site of Bordeaux will be cut by 69 positions. Teleperformance be explained today "structural overcapacity" and puts forward an operating loss of 36 million euros in 2009 in France for a turnover of 300 million.The group attributes this poor performance by "a slowdown in demand for its key markets" and "the loss of significant commercial contracts during 2009.

A social plan for 585 positions had already been applied to the company in France in 2009 and had been strongly challenged by unions in the courts, which had delayed its implementation for several months. This new plan is not a surprise. Teleperformance, which has six subsidiaries in France, decided in 2009 to merge. "They wanted to go too fast last year in the merger, where the resistance of employees. Result, management has been changed.But we continue to fight, "said Eric Dufaud, delegate of the union SUD.

Relocation

"I put everything from scratch with the intention of returning to profitability and secure a future for the industry of call centers in France," said Jean-Herve early June Jenn, new president of the group since April. Its purpose is to provide value-added services, refining and expanding the range of services offered to justify the higher prices in France and abroad. A call center agent costs about 30 euros an hour in France, against 15 euro in Tunisia.

All call centers have an offshore development center, because their large customers have one obsession: to lower prices. Teleperformance is so well established in Tunisia, are among the largest private employers in the country.He also opened last year a call center in Morocco and plans to accelerate the movement. "If the principals do not respond or if the government does not legislate, it's the call center industry is likely to go abroad," says Eric Dufaud.

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If the New York Stock Exchange opened Thursday near the equilibrium, this delicate balance has not lasted. The announcement promises to sell in the older building having fallen 30% in May has infuriated investors. Suddenly, the Dow Jones lost 1.05% and the Nasdaq 1.51% after this announcement /

"Nobody seems eager to take advantage of market declines to buy shares, at least for now", believes Patrick O'Hare of Briefing.com financial site."This reluctance reflects a decline in market confidence about the ability of companies to achieve their performance goals in the second half of the year."

Influenced by the European public debt crisis, the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and fears of slowing global economy, U.S. equity indices closed sharply lower Wednesday for the second consecutive month to reach their worst quarter since the second quarter of 2002. They returned to their lowest level in eight months … Yesterday, the Dow Jones finished down 1% to 9774 points, the S & P 500 also lost 1% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

The banking sector might react after the removal of a proposed tax credit and the approval by the House of Representatives, the final version of the broader reform of financial regulation in the United States.President Barack Obama reiterated Wednesday during a speech in Racine (Wisconsin, North) that the bill would "prevent a crisis" such as that of 2007-2009. "This is a reform that will protect our economy from the recklessness and irresponsibility of some," he said.

On the face of macroeconomic indicators, the employment figures expected Friday should mark a return to job losses after five months of improvement. On Wednesday, already, enrollment weekly unemployment rose unexpectedly last week in the United States, according to the Labor Department. Applications for unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to $ 472,000 in the figures as at June 26, while economists on average expected a decline to 452,000 over the figure of 457,000 originally reported.This does not augur the best.

Even more than other countries engine of global growth, China has seen, precisely, growth prospects are heavily depressed by the Conference Board and the Chinese manufacturing activity slowed in June, according to two indices Chinese purchasing managers released Thursday.

Investors will closely monitor the repayment by the European banks, expected on Thursday. They will have to repay 442 billion euros Thursday to the European Central Bank, with the maturing of a loan granted exceptional giant a year ago.

On the face values

Technology stocks, IT and telecom will be well attended.

Setbacks Chinese Google could find exits.The license renewal application filed by the U.S. giant in China will be considered by the government and the result will be published shortly, have indeed shown this Thursday, the Chinese media. The U.S. group has shown good will by announcing in Beijing that he would terminate the automatic rerouting of its Chinese site to its site of Hong Kong. The track lost 0.11% to 444.47 dollars.

The internet group Yahoo! else has announced Wednesday that its board had approved a share repurchase program of $ 3 billion over three years. During Wednesday's closing, this amount represents approximately 15% of the market capitalization of the group.After the announcement, the stock price Yahoo!, The lowest since a year has risen by 1.59% to 14.08 dollars.

The Microsoft IT group (+ 0.56% to 23.14 dollars) announced Wednesday it would gradually stop marketing its phone launched in April, the Kin, especially for the youth market of amateur social networks. " Microsoft has decided to focus on the launch (OS) Windows 7 and Phone will not deliver the Kin in Europe this fall as planned, "the group said in a statement

The small business Internet distribution Woot, offers its followers not more than one model per day at deflated prices, said Wednesday that she was redeemed by the giant Amazon, without specifying financial terms of the transaction."The name of a dog! Woot has signed an agreement with Amazon – yes, then the Amazon – to become an independent subsidiary of the giant e-commerce, "said the little Texas company on his blog. The title gained 0.14% to 109.40 dollars.

Finally, Boeing could react because the World Trade Organization asks Brussels to halt "without delay" to the subsidies paid to Airbus. Boeing sees this decision as "a great legal victory, the European union will be Apel.les action leaves 0.51% to 62.46 dollars.