The upturn could be short lived. The rise of European registrations in September (+6.3%) explained by the fact scrap premiums up on most of the Old Continent. However, for reasons of public finances, these devices will be interrupted in many countries. This is particularly the case already in Germany (21% in volume last month), where a bonus of 2,500 euros has led to the sale of 2 million vehicles. They will however be delivered, so registered and, until early next year. For its part, Britain has extended this premium should stop soon for 100,000 vehicles, a few months. La France, for his part said that the amounts of the premium would be reduced by breaking twice in 2010, from 1,000 to 700 euros from 1 January, then 500 euros on 1 July.

Second reason not to give in to optimism, the September 2009 figures compare to a low in September 2008 when sales had fallen by 8.1%. The volumes slumped further thereafter, the comparison with 2008 may be further supported by the end of the year.

With the effect of scrap premiums, manufacturers have continued throughout the year to revise upward their forecasts for 2009, having anticipated in early declines of about 20%. In July, Renault expecting a market decline this year by 8% compared to 2008. Philippe Varin, the boss of PSA Peugeot Citroen, was estimated at the Frankfurt Motor Show in mid-September that the decline would be "approximately 10%. In the first 9 months of the year it stood at 6.6%.

Next year could prove equally difficult.According to Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault, the real recovery will occur on the continent as late 2010 or early 2011. The group expects next year to a market downturn between -8 and -10% compared to 2009. The diagnosis is similar to Jean-Marc Gales, director of Peugeot and Citroen. According to experts, Germany alone could lose 1 million car sales next year compared to 2009. You'll then have several years to recover. According to the firm Alix Partners, Europe did not return until 2014 its 2007 volumes.

Offensive Ford, Renault and Fiat

For now, some manufacturers are spared, the game is the case by Ford (17.8% in September), thanks to its new Fiesta, a small model. In late September, its market share reached 8.9% against 8.4% over the same period last year.Another winner last month, the Renault brand, which jumped by 21.1% (however, she recoils of 11.3% over 9 months), with a wide "very young", according to the manufacturer. The Fiat group is also shaped commercially, with an increase in registrations by 13.7% in September and 2.5% since the beginning of the year.

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